2012-2013 preview: Toronto Raptors

Eastern Conference #10: Toronto Raptors (36-46)

Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Jose Calderon, John Lucas.
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields, Terrence Ross, Alan Anderson.
Small Forward: DeMar DeRozan, Linas Kleiza.
Power Forward: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Quincy Acy
Center: Jonas Valanciunas, Ed Davis.

Playing together... but fighting for minutes

          What do you do when you have two point guards like Lowry and Calderon? Lowry developed into a solid point guard a couple seasons ago, and averaged 14.3 points, 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 41% shooting in 32 minutes and moved from Houston to Toronto this offseason. However, Calderon has established himself as a top-5 passing point guard and an efficient shooter, averaging 10.5 points, 8.9 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 46% shooting in 33.9 minutes. He finished third last season in assists per 48 minutes behind Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo. Calderon doesn't have the mentality to play shooting guard, and Lowry's only 6 feet tall and isn't the next Allen Iverson. That means they'll have to share the minutes. So... how do you split them?
 I'd argue to give the starter's minutes to Lowry assuming he continues to improve next season. He averaged 2 assists less than Calderon but could close that gap while offering more scoring, more rebounding, and decent defense. Whatever Toronto decides to do, they won't have to worry about quality at the PG position, and if one of them gets hurt the other won't have a problem playing extended minutes.
          So who do the Raptors have other than those two? They've got DeMar DeRozan, a work in progress who's entering his 4th NBA season. He shot a career low FG% with 42% and shot a career high 26% from three. If his 3FG% can continue to improve off of last season, he could become a dangerous wing player and score close to 20 PPG. He averaged 16.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 35 minutes a game. They've also got Andrea Bargnani, a high volume shooter who could be a top-5 scorer if his percentages could get above 50%. His playing time was cut short by injuries last season, and he played only 31 games. The season before (2010-11) was his best season yet though. He averaged 21.5 points, 5.2 Rebounds, 44% shooting, 35% from three, and 35.7 minutes per game. Seriously, a seven footer who can't even get six rebounds per game? And shoots 45% despite playing PF and almost always being guarded by shorter guys? How many seven footers couldn't score 20 points on 18 shots and 6 free throws per game? That season, Bargnani finished last of all centers who played at least 30 games in rebounds per 48 minutes. He averaged seven rebounds per 48 minutes. Ed Davis averaged 7.1 rebounds in half that time for Toronto. Sad.
         They also have Landry Fields, who regressed a bit from his rookie season numbers, but still was a solid backup for the Knicks last season. His rookie season, he averaged 9.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 50% shooting, and 39% from three. If he can come back to those numbers for the Raptors and maybe get more shots, he could score 12-15 points a game off the bench or as a starters depending on how Terrence Ross plays. Ross is Toronto's rookie SG who actually resembles Fields quite a bit. He's also a tall 6'7" shooting guard. He averaged 16.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals, shot 46% from the field and 38% from three. He seems promising for a team like Toronto that could use a rising star, so look for him to get big minutes if he produces right away.
This is probably the least exciting top 10 video we've seen yet. A few dunks by James Johnson and
some passing by Calderon. Despite that, I think this Raptors team still has promise. If Bargnani can stay healthy all season, they should have enough firepower to keep up with most teams. The question will be whether their defense is good enough and if they can shoot a decent collective percentage on the floor. They have a backup five of Lowry/Calderon, Ross/Fields, Linas Kleiza, Amir Johnson, and Ed Davis. That's not a promising outlook for Raptors fans. Still, I think this Raptors team overachieved last year, and seeing them add Lowry, Fields, Ross, and potential for a full season of Bargnani makes it hard for me not to expect improvement from them. Whoever plays backup at PG and SG will be fine, and Amir Johnson seems effective in small doses. Last season he averaged 7.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 58% from the field in 24 minutes a game. If Bargnani stays healthy, he likely will see fewer minutes this season.
          The Raptors seem about one good lottery pick away from sneaking into the playoffs, and if they don't do well next season, that may be exactly what they get.