2012-2013 preview: Atlanta Hawks

Eastern Conference #9: Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

Point Guard: Devin Harris, Jeff Teague.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, Anthony Morrow, John Jenkins.
Small Forward: Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson.
Power Forward: Josh Smith, Ivan Johnson, Mike Scott.
Center: Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Johan Petro.

Two All-Stars will try and keep Atlanta in the playoffs

Atlanta's best years are over. They peaked two years ago with a 53-29 record and the 3rd seed in the East, and now it's over. They finished 40-26 last season and then traded their leading scorer, Joe Johnson, to the Nets for a bunch of role players including Anthony Morrow and Johan Petro. Now their star is Josh Smith and he'll be supported mainly by Al Horford, Lou Williams, and Devin Harris. Exciting. Smith is assuredly a fantastic player, averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.4 steals, shooting 46% in 35 minutes and playing excellent defense. He's the youngest player to reach 1,000 blocks, doing it before he turned 24 years old, and he's only 6'9".
They also have Al Horford, who was injured most of last season (only playing 11 games), but had a great season in 2010-11 averaged 15.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 56% shooting in 35 minutes a game. So combined, those two average 34 points, 19.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 2.8 blocks, and about 52% shooting. Those numbers can match any dynamic big man duo in the NBA, and these guys are both under 6'11".
They're also adding Lou Williams, a solid backup guard from the 76ers, who should take over the starting SG position for Atlanta. He'll be backed up by Anthony Morrow, who they got from the Joe Johnson trade. They've also got Kyle Korver coming from Chicago, who'll likely be starting at SF. This is definitely Atlanta's weakest position, and the only points they'll get from the SF spot is wide-open threes from Korver when he guy collapses on Smith or Horford in the post.

Despite the decent talent here, it can't make up for Joe Johnson's absence. Even though Smith was also an All-Star and a physical freak who can absolutely dominate at times, Johnson was the guy Atlanta turned to in close games. If you watch Atlanta's top 10 plays, you'll notice Johnson's buzzer-beating shots. He did that all the time for Atlanta. Now they don't have anyone reliable to turn to at those times, and they'll be missing their most clutch player. They may be able to make up the statistical loss of trading Johnson, but not the close-game confidence he'll take with him to Brooklyn. Despite that, I had a hard time not putting Atlanta in the playoffs. It was a close race between Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago for the 7th and 8th playoff seeds, and ultimately I couldn't see Atlanta beating either of those teams, although Chicago could just as easily fall apart and finish worse than anyone expects.
          They've got a pretty decent bench in Jeff Teague, Anthony Morrow, DeShawn Stevenson, Ivan Johnson, and Zaza Pachulia. I especially love Zaza. When Horford got hurt and had to sit out for almost the entire season, Pachulia showed that he can be a solid player, peaking in February when he averaged 9.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and shot 47% in 35 minutes. So we know he'll do well in backing up Horford this season. Ivan Johnson and Morrow should be alright too. Morrow averaged 12 points and two rebounds while posting the lowest percentages in his career with 42% form the field and 37% from three (his first season below 40% from three), but shot a league-high 93% for free throws. He'll be a decent backup for Williams and mostly shoot threes and draw fouls. Teague was the starting PG for Atlanta last season, and its really a toss-up between him and Harris for the starter's job this season. Teague averaged 12.6 points, 4.9 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and shooting 48% in 33 minutes. Harris averaged 15.8 points, 5 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 45% shooting and 37% from three.
          Atlanta has some good pieces here with Smith, Horford, Lou Williams, and maybe Teague/Harris. Unfortunately, it's just not enough to get into the playoffs unless we see one of the top eight teams collapse (which is totally possible). I couldn't imagine Atlanta winning a series against the Bulls or even the Bucks, and that's ultimately why I put them here. Maybe if they make a trade or get a good draft pick they'll be back in the hunt soon, but their golden days of the past couple seasons left with  Joe Johnson, and unless Smith goes crazy and averages something like a 25-14 for the season, I don't think they have a high enough level of talent to make it.
          If Horford can stay healthy and they catch a break or two and see a couple guys develop really well (I'm thinking Williams or Harris), then they might end up above that .500 mark which isn't too much of a stretch for them. But that will entirely depend on this team staying healthy. If Horford gets hurt again, their hopes for the playoffs are screwed (Pachulia is currently recovering from an injured foot), and this is similar with pretty much any of their starters other than Korver, who likely won't have much of an impact on this team anyway.
          There's always hope though, and my view of this Hawks team is probably a lot more pessimistic than most people. If they find a guy who can carry them in clutch moments or a go-to scorer when things get tough, then things will be a lot easier for this team. Unfortunately, I don't think Smith or Horford will be that guy for them and they need a guard or forward, someone who can score from anywhere on the floor, to do that. Maybe Lou Williams emerges from the shadow of Iguodala, or maybe Josh Smith becomes a deadly three point shooter. We'll just have to wait and see.