So as you know, I never got around to finishing my Western Conference Season Preview. In fact, I haven't written anything here since early October. Three whole stinking months. That's what you get when you go to college full-time I guess. But lets not dwell on that. As unlikely as it is that I'll start writing here regularly again, I sincerely hope that I will have the time to do so. Since I carved out the time to sit down and watch a Blazers game tonight, I figured I'd at least start a new column: My picks for the 2013 All-Star game! The official All-Star voting is closed, and the starters will be announced January 17 so I'm just in time to get my picks in before the real ones are revealed. Before I give my picks though, I should explain my thought process. I'm picking players who will give us an exciting offensive-minded game. That's what this is all about, so the best scorers and the best all-around players will be taken. I also don't like the change from Center to three Forward spots, but since those are the rules I'll play along. When deciding between players, I'll look at their per game statistics, per 36 minute statistics, their effect on their team, and their team's record. I'll be making this Al-Star fiesta a three parter: The first part for Eastern Conference picks, the second part for Western Conference picks, and for the third part I'll be choosing contestants for the Skills challenge, Three-Point Shootout, and the Dunk Contest. Anyway, let's go!
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
GUARD #1: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics. 37.2 minutes, 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.6 turnovers, 50% FG, 26% 3FG, 64% FT, 18.59 PER.
It took me a long time to convince myself Rondo was worthy of the starting spot over Kyrie Irving. I eventually chose Rondo because I think pairing his quality passing with the quality shooting of the guys we're surrounding him with will be a great combination. Rondo started the first month of the season by stringing together 37 consecutive games of double digit assists (continued from last season) before getting ejected from a game to end the streak. People often focus on his assist numbers, which is logical considering that's where his most impressive statistics come from. He's leading the league in assists for the second straight year, and is in the top six for assists and averaging 8+ assists for five consecutive seasons now. This is also his third season averaging 10+ assists.
Along with his assists, his shooting is improving too. Rondo has, in the past, been a notoriously bad shooting and not someone you want taking a shot unless he's driving to the rim. This season however, Rondo is currently shooting 51% from mid-range (59 for 116) and is still being left open from that range by opponents on a nightly basis. He's only averaging 13.2 points and still can't shoot from three consistently and is still a terrible free throw shooter at only 64%. However, Rondo is currently averaging more points than he did the past two seasons, and his Free Throw shooting is above 60% for the first time in three seasons as well. As people have been saying for years, if Rondo can finally fix his shooting problems he'll be one of the best players in the league. Until then, he'll be known for his assist numbers and nothing else. Well... other than his ability to finish with the most ridiculous triple doubles I've ever seen. He has three triple doubles this season, and had 10 last season including the playoffs with his most memorable one being an outrageous 18 point, 17 rebound, 20 assist game against the New York Knicks despite shooting 7-20 from the field.
In short, the argument between Rondo and Irving is a great one, and this is probably the last year we'll be debating it before Irving surpasses Rondo's skill for good and pushes toward that MVP candidate level so many expect him to reach. Irving will be coming off the bench for sure, but seeing Rondo thread passes to all the superior scorers on this East team makes me giddy.
GUARD #2: Dwayne Wade, Miami Heat. 33.1 minutes, 19.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.4 turnovers, 51% FG, 36% 3FG, 75% FT, 22.81 PER.
Wade is far and away the only choice for the second starting guard spot. He blows away every other Shooting Guard in the East despite playing in the shadow of Lebron James. You can argue however much you want about Wade still being one of the best players in the league, because he is. But he's still far from being the center of attention on this Heat team. Still, Wade seems to have found an acceptable role on his team. He's averaging below 30 PPG for the first time since his rookie season in 2003-04, but he's averaging over 50% shooting for the first time in his career as well. He's also averaging a career best 36% from three. He won't be entering the three-point contest anytime soon, but he's finally starting to become at least somewhat reliable from outside. He only takes about one or two threes a game, and has kept from taking too many of them other than his last two seasons before Lebron came to Miami. He's also nearly averaging career lows in rebounds and assists, and it's painfully apparent that he's finally succumbed to Lebron in the battle for leadership of the Heat.
It doesn't matter. The Heat won the championship last season, and are currently on top of the Eastern Conference Standings. Yes they've had some problems lately, but this isn't the place to talk about it. Wade's production may be down, but he's still an obviously better and more exciting player than Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Arron Afflalo, or Bradley Beal. DeRozan and Beal are emerging as future stars, but unless they reach their potential Wade may have a lock on this spot for the next few seasons.
FORWARD #1: Lebron James, Miami Heat. 38.2 minutes, 26.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 2.8 turnovers, 55% FG, 40% 3FG, 73% FT, 29.85 PER.
No surprise here. Lebron is king of the NBA at this point. He just became the youngest player to score 20,000 career points and reached 5,000 assists on the same night. He's the reigning MVP and is on his way to his fourth MVP trophy in five seasons. He's one of the best scorers in the league and could finish this season as the scoring champ if he wanted to. He's ninth in minutes per game, fifth in scoring, 25th in rebounding (which has curiously dipped lately), 10th in assists, 8th in field goal percentage, third in field goal percentage without threes at 58%, 13th in steals, and leads the league in PER. This is astounding. If James picked up his rebounding and stopped taking threes so much, we could see him finish in the top 10 in points, rebounds, and assists, and in the top five in shooting percentage. We're witnessing one of the greatest players in NBA history play at the peak of his powers. Enjoy it. We may not see something like this again for a long time, if ever.
FORWARD #2: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks. 37.2 minutes, 29.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.5 turnovers, 46% FG, 42% 3FG, 82% FT, 25.81 PER.
Anthony is playing one of the best seasons of his career and is easily the second best forward in the East behind Lebron. He's the superstar of a New York team that is fighting the Heat for the top spot in the East, and they'd be doing a lot better if injuries and old age didn't keep striking. Injuries have struck almost everybody at some point this season, and if this entire team can get healthy for the second half of the season, we may see them give the Heat a great playoffs rematch although presumably in the Eastern Conference Finals. They've recently seen Amar'e return, and Iman Shumpert comes back this week as well. So even though they have players going down with injuries, they've also got guys returning to the lineup. Anthony's obviously a player known for his scoring ability. His defense seems to have finally improved this season, or at least early on. He's second in the league in scoring behind Kobe, and ahead of Durant, Harden, and Lebron. He's hitting his threes at a great rate, so Knicks fans aren't as scared of him taking so many as they were last season when he averaged 33%. Since the All-Star game is meant to be all offense and no defense, Melo will thrive. He may take about 10 threes, and he may have problems sharing the ball, but it'll still be fun to watch. I think...
The thing with the three guys listed above Carmelo is that they'll be able to share the ball. James scores a lot, but he also passes a lot. He plays with Wade so they know how to work together, and Rondo leads the league in assists. Carmelo could threaten to ruin that if he chose to go to an isolation play whenever he got the ball and try to prove that he's just as good as the guys he's on the floor with. I can't say that for sure, because he played great on the Olympic team which featured a similar assembly of talent. Regardless of how Carmelo plays in the game, he's good enough that he deserves this spot.
PS: Also, even though positions aren't specified in the All-Star game. Lebron would play the Power Forward spot with Melo at Small forward. Thought I'd make that clear.
FORWARD #3: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls. 38.4 points, 12.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.3 steals, 2.9 turnovers, 46% FG, 80% FT, 17.12 PER.
There are a lot of people who could take this last spot. I debated between Noah, Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, Chris Bosh, Brook Lopez, and even Nikola Vucevic. In the end, I chose Noah because he's one of the biggest reasons this Chicago team has stayed in the playoff hunt without Rose. The Bulls have surprisingly gotten to a 22-15 record and the fourth seed in the East. Noah is one of the biggest reasons why. He's one of the best defensive players in the league and anchors one of the league's best team defenses. He leads all centers in assists, averaging a surprising 4.1 a game and brings energy and hustle to this team. He's 10th in rebounds per game and tied for third in offensive rebounds. On this team, Noah would be the guy to bang other bodies down low and grab the rebounds and play defense if necessary. He'll tip in missed shots, and I know he'll be unselfish and can pass the ball back outside of the defense collapses on him. Any of the starting five for the East could erupt for a triple double in this game because they can all fill the stat sheet, which is exactly what we want for a game like this. In short, Noah will anchor the team and keep them steady. He'll provide a couple dunks, grab loose balls, and provide opportunities for his teammates to score. Because honestly, we'd rather see Lebron, Anthony, or Wade hit some crazy shot than see Noah take hook shots all day.
THE BENCH:
Here's my blueprint for the bench: Two guards who can handle the ball and shoot, two versatile guard/forward combos who can fit in any lineup, and a big man who can do things similar to Noah. There's no need for more than 10 players. 12 is normal for a roster, but with the talent we have there's no point in playing more than 10. We want the best of the best and nobody else.
GUARD #1: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers. 35.7 minutes, 23.3 points, 3.6 rebounds. 5.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.7 turnovers, 46% FG, 40% 3FG, 83% FT, 21.91 PER.
I almost stuck Irving in as the second starting guard over Wade, but decided against it because Irving and Rondo both need to be the primary ball-handler on their team to maximize their ability. So for my All-Star team, Rondo and Irving will never be on the court together, and even though Rondo is starting, Irving will likely get more minutes. I got to see Irving last night when the Cavs came to play in Portland, and Irving exploded for 31 points on 13 of 24 shooting. His ball-handling skills are what amazed me the most. On several plays throughout the game, Irving went behind his back, between his legs, threw in a couple crossovers, and just embarrassed Lillard. It's not a secret that Lillard plays terrible defense, but it felt like Irving, in his 39 minutes on the court, could have scored 50 points if he wanted. In only his second season, Irving is already one of the top scorers in the league and is destined, barring a horrible injury, to become a superstar in this league. He seems like he'll become a smarter and possibly even higher scoring version of Russell Westbrook. Someone who can shoot the ball a bit smarter and not try to force things so much. Of course, the biggest difference between Irving and Westbrook is that Westbrook plays with Durant and Irving is the lone star on his team other than Varejao, who can't stay healthy. A day will likely come when Irving challenges Chris Paul for the title of best Point Guard in the league. Irving's stats haven't improved significantly from his rookie year other than averaging five more points a game, but I think that if he was surrounded by better shooters than he is right now then his assist numbers could climb into a more elite rankings. Right now the top scorers on the Cavs other than Irving and Varejao (who's injured) are Dion Waiters (36%), Alonzo Gee (40%), and CJ Miles (39%). They're obviously not befitting of a "Big Three" status, and looking at their numbers puts some perspective into why Irving is by far the leading scorer on this team. Regardless of how bad his teammates are, Irving is quickly become one of the best guards in the league and deserves this All-Star nod.
GUARD #2: Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers. 37.9 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 3.5 turnovers, 46% FG, 38% 3FG, 78% FT, 19.11 PER.
I thought a lot about whether another shooting guard should have this spot... and decided no. Holiday deserved this more than any other guard. I didn't even realize it until I looked up his career stats, but Holiday is still really young. He's only 22 years old and in his fourth season in the NBA. He's averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, minutes, and FG%. He's the budding star point guard on a Sixers team that was supposed to be really good with Andrew Bynum at Center. With Bynum yet to play a game this season, Holiday is left as the primary scorer on this team with Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Jason Richardson, and Nick Young shouldering most of the scoring load as well. Their percentages are less than pleasant... Thad is the only Sixer averaging over 50% form the field at 52%, Richardson and Nick Young are each shooting 40%, and Turner is shooting 43%. If Bynum had been healthy this season, I think the Sixers would be in the middle of the playoff hunt and Holiday would be averaging 10+ assists. Being only 22 years old, I expect Holiday to continue to get better over the next few years. He definitely deserves this All-Star nod, even though he will probably get the fewest minutes of all guards.
FORWARD #1: Paul George, Indiana Pacers. 36.4 minutes, 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.7 turnovers, 43% FG, 37% 3FG, 80% FT, 16.97 PER.
In his third season in the NBA, George is at the forefront of the Pacers after Danny Granger was injured over the summer. With Roy Hibbert drastically underperforming as well, The scoring load has been placed on George's shoulders along with David West and George Hill. He's reacted fairly well to the increased pressure considering he's still pretty young. His percentages are a bit low, but after shooting 39% for November he bounced back to shoot 46% in December. He takes almost six threes a game, so that factors into his low overall FG% despite shooting nearly 46% from inside the arc. George also has a knack for grabbing rebounds, and has pulled down 10+ rebounds in his last five games. For a Shooting guard/Small Forward combo, that's a huge benefit especially considering Roy Hibbert's disappointing performance this season. George trails only Lebron in rebounding by Small Forwards, and will likely continue to improve over the years.
He'll be a great spot-up wing player and rebounder for the All-Star team, and this will be the first of hopefully many All-Star appearances in his career.
FORWARD #2: Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics. 33.1 minutes, 19.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.3 turnovers, 43% FG, 37% 3FG, 80% FT, 19.98 PER.
Pierce's stats are very similar to George's. Pierce gets a few more points, George rebounds a bit better, they're shooting percentages are identical, and Pierce plays about three minutes fewer than George. George is rising to the peak of his talents while Pierce is in his twilight years. Despite being 35 years old, Pierce is still deserving of his 11th All-Star appearance. He, Garnett, and Rondo are still the Big Three for Boston despite age starting to overcome Pierce and Garnett. I suspect this may be the last All-Star game for Pierce, and he'll likely be played sparingly in favor of younger and more exciting players. He's still an exceptional scorer and relies more on his experience and faking out his opponents than the overwhelming athleticism that many young stars rely on. He's still really skilled though and is the leading scorer for a Celtics team fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. He just edges out Josh Smith, Luol Deng, and Thaddeus Young for this spot.
CENTER: Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic. 31.9 minutes, 11.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 blocks, 1.6 turnovers, 51% FG, 66% FT, 17.03 PER.
His numbers are pretty impressive. He's one of four healthy players averaging 11 points and 11 rebounds (We're discounting Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao). Even more impressive? He averaged 12.1 points and 12.8 rebounds in December. And he's averaging an amazing 15.0 points and 14.3 rebounds in January! That's Kevin Love territory right there. Wow. He only averaged 5 points and five rebounds in 15 minutes last season, but exploded onto the scene this season out of nowhere. There's some discussion as to whether Glen Davis' injury affected Vucevic's numbers, so here's my take: It's hard to tell since Nikola was on and off during November before really turning it on a couple weeks before Davis got injured and then stayed consistent during Davis' injury. He's played well in his first two games with Davis back in the lineup but we'll see how it goes. If Davis does drag Vucevic's numbers back down it's too bad. Nikola's numbers are All-Star worthy. This is definitely my most controversial pick, but I love Vucevic. And these are my picks. He'll clean up the boards with Noah out, and he plays well with another big man so he can play alongside Noah if need be.
