2012-2013 preview: Sacramento Kings

Western Conference #15: Sacramento Kings (22-60)

Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas, Aaron Brooks, Jimmer Fredette.
Shooting Guard: Marcus Thorton, Francisco Garcia.
Small Forward: Tyreke Evans, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw.
Power Forward: Jason Thompson, Thomas Robinson.
Center: Demarcus Cousins, Chuck Hayes.

Sacramento? Seriously?

          The Kings have the building blocks in place, but they're still in rebuild mode. They've got Demarcus Cousins, who will likely contend for an All-Star spot after averaging 18.1 points and 11.0 rebounds in his second season, and Tyreke Evans, who still has shooting issues to overcome before he can become a legitimate threat on the perimeter. Other than that, they've got an incredibly young team with mediocre talent. A bench of Aaron Brooks, Francisco Garcis, John Salmons, Thomas Robinson, and Chuck Hayes isn't going to protect a lead when your starters are resting. There honestly aren't many terrible teams in the West, so I expect the Kings to receive another lottery pick after the coming season. They've got second year point guard Isaiah Thomas, who averaged 11.4 points, 4.1 assists, and 45% shooting in 25.5 minutes his rookie season. He'll likely improve this season, and I think he could average a 12-6 if he gets the minutes. He'll be backed up by Aaron Brooks, who is returning from a season long stint in China. Brooks looked like a promising guy three seasons ago when he averaged 19.8 points, 5.3 assists, 43% FG and 40% 3FG in 35.5 minutes with the Rockets, but then his role got reduced when he couldn't replicate that production and he was traded to Phoenix to back up Steve Nash for the second half of the 2010-11 season and played less than 20 minutes a game. I don't expect Brooks to replicate his stats from 2009, and he will likely take awhile to get readjusted to the NBA before he's able to be a solid if even decent role player for the Kings.
          Marcus Thorton also seems to have potential, but he took a step back last season after averaging just over 21 points in his 27 games with the Kings after being traded from the Hornets. He still averaged 18.7 points last season, but his percentages dropped (43% FG and 34% 3FG) about 2% each. He was locked up last season for a contract worth $31 million over four seasons, so the Kings seem invested in him. The Kings will be relying on him to be one of the leading scorers though, so the question of how effectively he gets his points will be important this season. He'l be their #2 or #3 scoring option behind Evans and possibly behind Cousins depending on how consistent of a threat he is.
          Tyreke Evans is Sacramento's star in the making. At least that's what they'd like him to be. Evans made a greatly promising start his rookie season by averaging 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and shooting 46% in 37 minutes a game. In the two seasons since then, he's been unable to replicate those numbers and has had problems with his jumper. He's a career 25% 3FG shooter and gets most of his points attacking the rim. If he were able to shoot the ball well, he'd likely be close to an all-star level, but after three seasons he still hasn't fixed that issue. Of course, there's still plenty of hope for him. He just turned 23 years old and  should theoretically still have a couple years before reaching his peak. Unfortunately for the Kings, they aren't going to get anywhere when he shoots like that. The Kings have John Salmons and Travis Outlaw backing him up at SF, and that's not something to be happy about. I do feel like Salmons could be a valuable piece, as he averaged 20 PPG only three seasons ago, but he is likely past his peak (32 years old) and also shot a career low 40% last season. As for Outlaw, he's not one to be trusted to score effectively. Outlaw has now gone for four consecutive seasons of shooting under 40% from the field, finishing last season with 34% FG, 26% 3FG and 67% FT which are all career lows for him. The Kings are basically stuck at SF and unless Evans fixes his shooting problems they're going to have production problems at SF. Considering Thorton and Cousins are the other two leading scorers, that may be a problem.
          Jason Thompson and Thomas Robinson will split up the Power Forward minutes depending on how well Robinson plays. Thompson averaged 9.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in 26 minutes a game for the Kings last season while Robinson averaged 17.7 points, 11.9 rebounds (second in the NCAA), and 51% shooting in 31.3 minutes a game for the Kansas Jayhawks as a Junior last season. I expect that Robinson will start out on the bench, but may play his way into the starting spot and around 30 minutes a game. He seems like a great rebounder and physical guy, although his defense will be a big factor in how many minutes he gets. In the long term, I think Robinson will turn out alright for the Kings but he may take awhile to develop. On the positive side, he played three years in college so he may be able to adjust to the NBA quicker than many of his younger fellow rookies.
          At Center, of course, is Demarcus Cousins. He averaged 18.1 points and 10.9 rebounds in his second season in the league and looks poised to break out as one of the best centers in the league. His shooting percentage (44%) is the biggest thing holding him back, and if he can get that up around 50% he could score up to 25 PPG on average. I expect his rebounding to improve as well, and we may be seeing a 23-12 with two blocks a game from Cousins this season, just in time for him to sign a contract extension with the Kings. He's one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, foundational piece for the Kings moving forward. He's a stud center in the making and if he can improve his defense that'll stabilize this Kings team a lot. The Kings allowed 104.4 points last season, three points more than the second worst defensive team in the league. They'll need Robinson and Cousins to provide defensive support since this isn't a team that's made to outscore their opponents. I think Cousins will be able to contend for an All-Star appearance this year, but that'll depend on how much he actually improves. There doesn't seem to be any reason that his growth won't continue, but you never know.
          Sacramento is stuck with guys who can't play defense, but can't outscore their opponents or shoot effectively enough to not worry about defense. They'll need to either sign some veterans who can play defense and score, or tank this season and hope for another good lottery pick. They've got a base in Cousins and possibly Evans, but other than that I don't think anybody on this team has too much promise. Even in watching their top 10 plays from last season (shown above), they don't seem like a team that can do much else other than run fast breaks. Still, the rebuilding is in process and they've already started. Robinson and Cousins do seem like a promising big man combo and they may be able to carry the Kings to a few wins this year. Not many, but still a heck of a lot more than if they weren't here.