2012-2013 preview: New York Knicks

Eastern Conference #5: New York Knicks (50-32)

Point Guard: Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd.
Shooting Guard: JR Smith, Ronnie Brewer, Iman Shumpert.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, Steve Novak, James White.
Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas.
Center: Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby.

          I know, I know. It doesn't seem possible. The Melo-Amar'e duo was supposed to transform the Knicks into title contenders, but instead they struggled to consecutive first round playoff exits at the hands of Lebron, Dwayne, and the Miami Heat. Since Amar'e and Carmelo joined New York, the Knicks have gone 77-71. Not exactly what people expected or hoped for. Of course, injuries have plagued them since they joined forces and they've never been able to find a groove together. Adding Tyson Chandler to the mix messed up Amare's game, and the clashing egos of two of the NBA's leading scorers were hurting the team. Yes, they were both top-10 scorers the season before they moved to NY.

Yeah guys! That's right! I'm pretty freaking awesome.

          In short, nothing really happened they way they expected in New York. Why should that change now? Because they have a new identity. It may not seem like it at first, but this is a totally different team than they were two years ago.
They've got three good or great defensive big men in Chandler, Camby and Thomas. Sure Thomas is ancient by now (40 years old) but he can still play a few effective minutes most games when Amar'e takes a breather. Yeah Camby is also old at 38, but he can still rebound with the best of them. He grabbed 9.3 rebounds in only 24 minutes a game last season and led the NBA in rebounds per 48 minutes. Think about that. That's more than Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, or Andrew Bynum. His per 48 minutes rebounding numbers, 18.8, match the rebounding averages of Joakim Noah and Tim Duncan combined! Am I getting my point across? Have I mentioned he's 38 years old?!?!
          So first, they'll always have a defensive presence inside. With last season's DPOY starting at Center, having Camby as the backup has the Knicks looking pretty good at Center. The two of them won't account for much scoring, although Chandler is certainly a reliable scorer when they need him, leading the NBA with 68% shooting last season and averaging 11.3 PPG. Their defense last season was decent, giving up 94.7 PPG which was 11th in the NBA. How much of an effect can Chandler and Camby have if the rest of the team is more offensive-minded though? We know Carmelo and Amar'e aren't defensive oriented and will rely on outscoring their opponents rather than shutting them down. So defense aside, lets look at the rest of this team...
          Point guard is the most obvious place to start, and is the place that's changed the most. The world is aware, by now, of Linsanity and everything following Jeremy Lin's breakout in January last season. The Knicks passed on resigning Lin, and now he's with the Rockets. The Knicks are instead bringing back Raymond Felton, who may or may not work out after his disappointing out-of-shape seasons with Portland. Yeah, he says he's back in shape now (which assuredly pisses off everyone in Portland) and is excited to play for New York again, but the question will be if he stays the player he was in Portland, or reverts back to his 2010-11 statistics he put up in NY. For a quick review, lets compare his stats from the past two seasons:

2010-11 (NY): 38.4 MPG, 17.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 9.0 APG, 1.8 SPG, 3.3 TPG, 42% FG, 33% 3FG
2011-12 (Portland): 31.8 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 2.8 TPG, 41% FG, 30% 3FG

So yeah, you can see where Portland might've been swayed by Felton's numbers. You can also see why the Knicks could be excited to have him back. If Felton can get back to his 17-9 numbers, he could be a great ball handler and distributor for the Knicks and possibly limit Carmelo's isolated one-on-one possessions. The Knicks also signed Jason Kidd to back up Felton. Kidd's assists and minutes numbers have seen a big drop off, and last season he saw his lowest minutes and assists averages in his 18 season career (28 minutes and 5.5 assists). It was the first time in his career to average less than 33 minutes or 7.5 assists per game. Unfortunately for him, he's likely to see those numbers dip even more unless he can find a way to beat out Felton for some of his minutes. He'll still be a great backup and at 39 years old he simply may not be able to play 30+ minutes a game like he used to. Still, anytime Jason Kidd is your backup you're in a pretty good place.
          The Knicks also got rid of the starting SG from last season. Landry Fields started 62 games for the Knicks in his sophomore season before signing a three year contract with the Raptors over the offseason. That leaves JR Smith in line to take over the starting spot, but his low shooting percentages (40% FG and 35% 3FG) could hurt, especially when he takes nearly six threes a game. The Knicks brought over Ronnie Brewer from the Bulls, who could be a defensive stopper in place of scoring. He only shoots 43% FG, 27% 3FG and a very unattractive 56% FT. The Knicks also have the recovering Iman Shumpert, who tore his ACL in the playoffs last season and won't be back until at least December. Unless Brewer steps up his shooting, we can expect to see Smith playing the majority of the SG minutes until Shumpert comes back and even then it may be awhile until Shumpert works his way back into the lineup.

          At SF we obviously have Carmelo. More than enough has been said about Melo, but he's still one of the best scorers anyway and always seems to step it up in clutch situations. I don't watch many New York games so I don't see Melo in action very often. When I do, he rarely disappoints though. The number of crunch time 3s he's hit is simply amazing. There isn't a comprehensive list on youtube, but just type in "Carmelo Anthony Game Winner" and you should have enough videos to keep you busy for a few hours. He can be one of, if not THE, best scorer in the NBA, but he's often inconsistent and has battled injuries. He had a legendary performance at the Olympics, where he went 10-12 from three and scored 37 points in only 14 minutes (that pace would give him 122 points in 48 minutes) and looks like he could be poised for a great season. Without Linsanity, the focus will be back on Carmelo and he'll be the star again. Just as he likes it. If things go right for him, consider Melo as a candidate for the scoring leader this upcoming season as well as one of the premier clutch performers in the NBA.
          The Knicks have Steve Novak behind Melo. Novak led the league in 3FG% and was third in 3FG made behind Jason Terry and Ryan Anderson. He only averaged eight points a game in 17 minutes per game, but provided a valuable threat off the bench who could spread the floor and would make the opposing team pay if he was left open. I expect Novak to do the same this year and likely increase his shooting, possibly to 3+ threes per game if he gets the minutes. Like anyone playing behind a superstar, Novak's impact on this team will be limited but if Carmelo gets hurt, as we know he can, then Novak will see himself playing most of the small forward minutes for the Knicks. While losing Carmelo is never a good thing, having Novak playing so many minutes may or may not be a good thing. He doesn't provide much other than his three point shooting and isn't a great defender, passer, or rebounder. He obviously couldn't fill Carmelo's shoes, but Novak is a one trick guy and if opponents are able to keep him covered on the outside he'll be pretty much shut down as an offensive threat.
          Then, of course, the Knicks have Amar'e at Power Forward. Amar'e was a top tier power forward with Phoenix before coming to New York at the start of the 2010-11 season. He was a top-10 scorer for multiple years with Phoenix and played great with New York the first year, but when Chandler joined the Knicks things got complicated for Amar'e. Having Chandler on the team meant Amar'e was permanently playing at the Power Forward spot, and when he took the ball into the paint, there would always be a second guy there to move from defending Chandler to him instead of playing with a PF who could clear out when Amar'e drove to the rim.
          Still, having Amar'e play a reduced role where he scores close to 20 PPG and grabs 7-9 rebounds and stays healthy would be a great help for Carmelo and the Knicks. He's a great second scoring option and focusing a team's defense on Carmelo can lead to a good night for Amar'e. At the backup PF spot we have Kurt Thomas, the oldest man in the NBA. In case you haven't noticed, the Knicks have three of the five oldest guys in the NBA. This doesn't seem to pose much of a problem, since they'll be counted on for few minutes and will be asked to either focus on defense or, in Kidd's case, run the offense. However, that idea of having all three of those guys and that fact that they WILL be depended on for minutes as the #2 guy at each of their positions is something to possibly be concerned about. You never know what to expect in the NBA, but with guys this age... they could potentially be more injury-prone and retirement is likely in the near future for them. Maybe this season is alright, but the Knicks will soon have to start looking for backup big men and point guards for as soon as the 2013 season.

          All that said, a part of me still wants to put the Knicks as high as the second seed. They have Carmelo. They have the defending DPOY. They have what looks like a rejuvenated Point Guard. They  have hope for things to come together with Amar'e. If Iman Shumpert can come back strong (no guarantees) around Christmas, that'll give them a promising defensive guard. It's all in place. The question, as always, is whether Carmelo, Amar'e, and Mike Woodson can put it all together into a team that can challenge for a title. In the end, this is what I have to say: when the Knicks and Heat were locked into facing each other for the first round, I knew exactly what would happen. The Heat would win. There was no way on earth they wouldn't. Jeremy Lin was hurt, leaving Mike Bibby and Baron Davis to ineptly handle the PG position, Amar'e and Shumpert both got injured, and Lebron and Wade were simply too much. Despite all that, I knew, I simply knew, that the Heat would not sweep the Knicks. Carmelo simply wasn't going to let it happen. There would be at least one game where Carmelo exploded and carried his team to victory. Sure enough, he scored 41 points in Game 4 and came through to win the game for the Knicks. Even against the best team in the league, I had no doubt that Carmelo would beat them at least once. That says something. It means as long as Melo remains in New York, Knicks fans have hope. That's certainly the case this year. Don't sleep on these guys. You may regret it.