2012-2013 preview: Indiana Pacers

Eastern Conference #3: Indiana Pacers (54-28)

Point guard: George Hill, DJ Augustin, Sundiata Gaines
Shooting Guard: Paul George, Lance Stephenson.
Small Forward: Danny Granger, Gerald Green, Sam Young
Power Forward: David West, Tyler Hansbourgh, Jeff Pendergraph
Center: Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi.

The future of Indiana basketball

          In the end, I couldn't put them ahead of Boston. That's the only reason they're not #2. I just couldn't see them winning a series against the Celtics, although it'd be pretty close and exciting. Last season's Pacers team was the best Indiana has seen since before "Malice At The Palace" in 2004. They beat the Howard-less Magic in the first round and took the champion Heat to six games before bowing out. The Pacers are centered around their two stars Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert, with a number of up and coming players surrounding them. David West, Paul George, and George Hill round out the starting lineup, and DJ Augustin, Lance Stephenson, Gerald "Highlight Reel" Green, Tyler Hansbourgh, and Ian Mahnimi will pick up the rest of the minutes. This is a team that can go 10 deep in quality (not necessarily starting material... but still quality) guys and have a number of lineup options to go with that. Granger will turn 30 at the end of the season, so he's unlikely to get any better than he is now and might have already reached his peak. Thankfully, the Pacers have enough young players to make up for his slight dip in production if it does, in fact, exist. They, like every other team, have made some roster changes this offseason. Most notably they've gotten rid of last season's starting PG, Darren Collison, and will replace him with George Hill. He's the only change in the starting five from last year, and should replace Collison's statistics fairly well. Collison averaged 10.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists with 44% FG and 36% 3FG in 31 minutes. As Collison's backup last year, Hill averaged 9.6 points, 3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 44% FG and 37% 3FG in 25.5 minutes a game. Not incredible, but he'll be playing with better scorers so it shouldn't matter.
          This year's Pacers look to be better than last year and are likely to achieve that goal. They're one of the best in the East now, and I think they could finish anywhere between the 2nd and 4th seeds. Homecourt advantage seems likely for these guys, as well as a Central Division title with the Bulls losing Derrick Rose. The Pacers are one of those teams who's offense isn't molded around a superstar scorer or a single amazing player. Much like the 76ers, Indiana distributes the ball and shots fairly evenly between everybody. Their point guards aren't likely to rack up too many assists since their shooting guards and Granger can handle the ball as well. There also won't likely be any fantasy basketball superstars on this team unless Granger jumps back to averaging 25 PPG, which is unlikely.
          George Hill and DJ Augustin are the Point Guards for this Pacers team this year and while I expect Hill to get the nod to start over Augustin, the minute spread will likely be pretty even. Augustin was the starting PG for the Bobcats last year, averaging 11.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and shooting 37%. He's not someone the Pacers should rely on for shooting, but with more talented players on the floor (any team is a big upgrade from the Bobcats) he should be able to play well as a pass-first point guard and distributor. Neither Hill nor Augustin are All-Star caliber and may even be simply average players. They won't need to play much of a larger role than that, and as long as they can shoot at a good percentage and make the shots they take they should be a success.
          At Shooting Guard the Pacers bring back Paul George, who recently had his team option exercised. He made a great second year jump in production last year, and should improve even more this year. He averaged 12.1 points, 5.6 rebounds (Second among all guards in the NBA behind Evan Turner), 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 44% FG and 39% 3FG in 29.7 minutes. His minutes will jump that 30+ mark and he could play up to 35 MPG if he does well or Stephenson doesn't pan out. Stephenson only played 10 MPG last season, so George may see himself as one of Indiana's leaders in minutes this season. He's an unrestricted Free Agent after next season, and is in line for a big pay raise. He looks to be an integral part of this Indiana team for the future, and we can expect to see the Pacers do what they can to keep George in Indiana for the long term. If he continues to improve, which is likely, he could be a future contender for an All-Star selection somewhere down the road.
          Danny Granger is Indiana's Small Forward as usual. He's not quite the guy who exploded onto the scene as the 2009 MIP and averaged 26 PPG, but he's surrounded with promising talent so he can share the scoring load. He also doesn't get as many shots as he used, while registering the lowest FG% of his career last season by shooting 42%. He's often seen as the leader of this team, but I think that perception may change over the course of this season as Hibbert and George continue to improve. Still, Granger will likely be Indiana's leading scorer and will get the biggest share of shots. He can handle the ball and create shots for himself and will be Indiana's go-to guy in clutch situations. Basically he's their Joe Johnson, but not quite with such a great resume. He's still a great player though and if it weren't for the amazing talent of Carmelo Anthony and Lebron James, Granger would have been an All-Star the last couple seasons. Granger will be backed up by Gerald Green, who may or may not be a help to the Pacers. It's been five seasons since Green played at least half the games in a season, although he did post career-high numbers in 32 games with the Nets last season so there's some hope. Green is best known for his dunking ability, having won the 2007 dunk contest and throwing down several vicious in-game dunks. Other than firing up the home crowd at times during games, Green likely won't bring much to the court or see much playing time either.
         The Pacers are bringing back David West at Power Forward and he will continue to support Roy Hibbert in the post. West's numbers dipped significantly over the past few seasons from 21 points and 8.9 rebounds in  2008-09 to 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds last season. Now it's true that last season me moved from the Hornets to the Pacers and didn't have such a large role as he used to, and he also saw far fewer shot attempts than he did with the Hornets while seeing his minutes dip just below 30 a game. That's just a product of this Pacers team, and while it can be disconcerting to see players join the team and watch their numbers drop, keep in mind that the team as a whole gets the points scored every night and have a balance that works for them. Their balance means that double-teaming anyone will likely end bad for their opponents and West and Hibbert seemed to work well together last season so there's no need to worry about something that seems to work. Tyler Hansbourgh will again back up West at PF, but his production seems uncertain. His numbers sank last season, his third season in the NBA, back to below 10 PPG and 5 RPG. He also shot just 40% from the field and doesn't seem to be improving like he should. There's a chance that the Pacers will increase West's minutes and decrease Hansbourgh's role if his production doesn't rebound like it should. West is perfectly capable of playing 30-35 minutes a game and that may be a good thing for the team.
          At Center, the Pacers have their All-Star Center Roy Hibbert, who should really be starting for my Trail Blazers. But whatever. I'm not bitter. The Pacers resigned Hibbert for just under $20 million a year, and he seems like a promising force in the East and a regular All-Star. He averaged 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 50% shooting in 29.8 minutes a game. Hibbert is still only 25 and while he doesn't seem like he'll develop in a high volume scorer, his improvement in rebounding seems to be still going and I expect him to average a double double this season. His playoffs numbers jumped to 11.8 points, 11.2 rebounds. 3.2 blocks, and 50% shooting in 30.9 minutes, so he seems to have a great sense of stepping it up for the playoffs. Hibbert is also giant, at 7'2" and 290 pounds, and that's huge considering many of today's centers are actually under 7' tall. His size will continue to help him as his skills improve and those extra 2-3 inches will help him a lot in playing defense or rebounding. I really hope Hibbert sees more minutes though. I don't understand why they'd keep him at under 30 MPG even though he's clearly one of the best centers in the NBA and is still getting better. It's not like they have anyone amazing backing him up (Ian Mahinmi was acquired from Dallas for that job this season), and he's also their best defensive player and one of the best shot blockers in the league. expect Hibbert to finally crack the 30 MPG mark this season and also make a big jump as he starts to reach his full potential. I think a top 5 rebounding and shot blocking average with 50%+ shooting is in his reach, and he may challenge Bynum for the title of best center in the East.
          All in all, this Pacers team seems well equipped for the season and will be no pushover when the playoffs come around. They're far more balanced that the Heat and Hibbert will destroy their big guys (which is what happened last season) and they're also young and hungry. They're clearly one of the most important teams in the East, and will likely remain that way for the next several seasons.