Eastern Conference #2: Boston Celtics (55-27)
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo, Keyon Dooling.
Shooting Guard: Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, Avery Bradley, Leandro Barbosa.
Small Forward: Paul Pierce, Jeff Green, Kris Joseph.
Power Forward: Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox.
Center: Kevin Garnett, Jared Sullinger, Jason Collins.
At the end of last season, the Celtics looked done. They'd lost a bitter seven game series against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, nearly toppling the heavy favorites in the East after beating both the Hawks and Sixers in seven and six games.. Their three best players, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were another year older. Allen was falling apart and needing multiple surgeries on his feet, Avery Bradley needed surgery on both his shoulders and would miss the first 2-3 months of the coming season, and they just didn't seem to have enough firepower to contend with other teams. So what did the front office do? They solved Boston's problems. They signed Courtney Lee, Jason Terry AND Leandro Barbosa, three guards who can create their own shots and drain threes. Jeff Green returned healthy and excited for a new season, and rookie Jared Sullinger looks to be a great backup for Garnett. They have Rajon Rondo, the league leader in assists, running the offense and possibly coming back with an improved jumper. They have Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett still, who are yet again ready to make one last reach for a title. Pierce and Garnett are now 35 and 36 years old respectively and re undoubtedly at the very end of their careers. Pierce plans to play out his contract through the 2013-14 season, and Garnett was just resigned for a three year contract worth nearly $12 million a season. That should really say something about these guys. They're old, but they are by no means ready to go out yet. Garnett made second team All-Defense last year, and is still one of the best defenders in the league. Pierce can still score and they'll both provide valuable experience, leadership, and balance to this team that suddenly looks revamped and ready to continue contending.
I'm actually very excited to watch this Celtics team this season, and I think that they have an outsider's shot at the title. The Thunder, Lakers, and Heat are the three teams that everyone expects to win it all this season, but outside of those three Indiana or Boston is my pick to win the championship. They're suddenly deep again, and will have a great bench as well as starters who can play 40+ minutes a game if needed. Despite all their new acquisitions, they won't be able to make a run without Pierce and Garnett. Their health will be key this season, so don't be surprised if the two of them are periodically rested to remain strong for the playoffs. They may sit out games without having an official injury, and that's something that shouldn't be too worrisome. What really matters is that they make the playoffs and Pierce and Garnett are ready to play hard in April and June. I'll also be interested to see how the minutes and positions shake out between all the guards. They've got Rondo, Lee, Bradley (when he returns), Terry, Dooling, and Barbosa all fighting for minutes at two positions. We know Rondo will get the majority of the PG minutes, and I expect Lee to start at SG with Terry playing substantial minutes at SG and PG off the bench. Barbosa, Dooling, and Bradley will have a hard time fitting in the rotation though. I don't expect Dooling to stay on the team, and Barbosa may not either. Bradley will have to carve a role out for himself when he comes back, and he may need an injury to get a good amount of minutes. If one of those five is going to get cut out, it'll be Barbosa, which is a shame since he played so well during the Olympics this summer. Bradley will hopefully come back strong though, and that'll give Boston a healthy perimeter defender to throw on the court. Bradley averaged 15.1 PPG in April once Ray Allen went down with injuries and he excelled in the extended minutes.
Courtney Lee is entering his fifth season in the NBA after averaging 11.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and shooting 43% FG and 40% 3FG in 30.3 minutes a game. He's developing into a great long range shooter and will likely make a couple threes every game and space the floor for the Celtics. He's only 27 years old, so he's still in his prime and is normally a consistent player and not injury prone, which is always a plus. Jason Terry averaged 15.1 points last season (his lowest average since his first season with Dallas in 2003) along with 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 43% FG and 38% 3FG in 31.7 minutes. Ideally, Terry would play some minutes at SG and also take the PG minutes left by Rondo. He'll also make 2-3 threes a game, and finished second in made threes in the league last season. He's a valuable bench player and knows his role very well, which he will able to recreate for Boston. He's been one of the league's best sixth men for several seasons now, and will bring some firepower to Boston's bench. Then there's Rondo of course. Rondo averaged 11.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, a league leading 11.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 45% shooting, 24% 3FG and 60% FT. He's also been an enigma thanks to his terrible shooting and free throw percentage (62% for his career). Rondo used to thrive off getting to the rim much like Derrick Rose for his points, but unlike Rose he's never been a big source of scoring for his team. He's never averaged more than 13 points a game for a season, and his assist numbers have risen every season he's played. Could he top 12+ assists a game? I think he could. He'll be playing with lots of options and decent scorers at every position. He likely won't score more than 12 PPG though, and that's probably a good thing unless he finally fixes his jumper. He's young enough that I wouldn't rule that out, and if he does he'll be much like Steve Nash in his prime when he averaged 19 PPG and 12 assists and won two MVP trophies. Unfortunately, his use will be limited if his shooting issues aren't solved. We know he can step up big when he has to, as evidenced by his 44 point explosion in Game two of the Conference Finals seen here.
It's crazy to think that Rondo is still improving his game. He's only 26 years old and is entering his seventh season in the NBA, usually about when players hit their peak. He recorded 10+ assists in 46 of the last 50 games he played in, including playoffs, highlighted by a streak of 24 straight double digit assist games. He's clearly the leader on this team, despite playing with two future Hall of Famers who still have something left in the tank. That's saying something. The past four seasons he's totaled an average of 10.2 assists a game, which is the third highest career average behind Magic Johnson (11.2) and John Stockton (10.5). Throw in his first two seasons where he struggled to get the starting spot and big minutes, and he's averaging 8.1, which is still tied for 10th all-time. If he averaged 12 assists a game this coming season, he'd be up to a career average of 8.8 and seventh all-time just ahead of Steve Nash and right behind Jason Kidd. Lets move on...
At Small Forward, the Celtics have long-time great Paul Pierce. He's entering his 15th season in the NBA, and has yet to average fewer than 16 points per game for a season. He's got the statistics thing down now, and you can predict his numbers pretty well. He'll give you 18-25 points, 4-6 rebounds, 3-5 assists, 44-47% FG, 35-40% 3FG, and 34-37 minutes a game. Those have been his averages for the past decade, and while he's getting older he doesn't yet seem to be seeing a significant drop in production when he's on the court. There's a chance that may change with the talent around him, but I don't think so. He and KG will still be the veteran leaders for this team and will carry the team in tough games and clutch situations. Rondo is the most talented player right now, but Pierce and Garnett will still command the respect of everyone on court until they retire. We can look for Pierce to be the guy who takes the game-deciding shots again this season, and he'll still embrace the challenge. He's now playing younger, more athletic players almost every night but he's got experience and practice on his side. He's still not someone you want to play against, and it'll likely be like that until he finally retires.
Also at Small Forward, we have the celebrated return of Jeff Green! Green was part of the trade that sent Kendrick Perkins to OKC a couple seasons ago, and he missed all of last season due to heart surgery and recovery. He's looked great during the preseason, and will bring the Celtics a legitimate backup Forward and a guy who can play more minutes if Pierce needs to sit out a game. His stats won't be anything amazing, but his presence will make a huge difference. He averaged 15.6 points and 5.2 rebounds in 37 minutes a game for the Thunder in the 2010-11 season, and he looks to be in great shape and could be ready for the best season of his career. He's still only 26 years old, and his enthusiasm to finally be back on the court will help Boston's bench a lot even if it doesn't seem like it.
Brandon Bass will start at Power Forward again after having a bit of a breakout season with Boston last year. He averaged 12.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 48% FG in 31.7 minutes and is also fairly young at 27 years old. Bass, Garnett, and Sullinger will likely split up the power forward and center minutes between them, with KG and Sullinger splitting the Center minutes and one of them taking the rest of Bass's PF minutes. I'm excited to see how a KG and Sullinger front court could work out for a few minutes each game. Garnett is entering his 18th season in the league and will be 37 years old when the season ends. He still averaged 15.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.1 blocks, 50% FG, and 31.3 minutes in 60 games last season. His ferocity has always been an integral part of his play, and that's what will continue to keep him playing at such a high level. His stats aren't amazing, but his defense is still top notch and he's one of the best defenders in the league. The defining statistics for him are his numbers in the playoffs last season: 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 50% FG in 36.9 minutes. That's a definite step up from his regular season numbers and perfectly portrays KG. His game always steps up when it matters. When Boston enters the playoffs, that's when their true power will show. We won't really know what they're capable of until then, but I'm still excited. Jared Sullinger is Boston's rookie backup big man. He slipped to the bottom of the first round in the draft because of suggested back issues, and if he stays healthy he may be a great steal for the Celtics. He's looked great in the preseason, and there's been talk of Sullinger starting over Bass alongside KG. We'll have to wait and see and let Sullinger prove himself in the real season, but he has great potential and Celtics fans should definitely be excited.
Like the Spurs, we should know better than to count these guys out or think they're done. Their addition of young guys while retaining their best veterans makes a dangerous combination that will take them to a high seed in the East this season. I'm rooting for them to beat Miami in an ECF rematch this season before Pierce and Garnett finally bow out and retire.
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