2012-2013 preview: Chicago Bulls

Eastern Conference #8: Chicago Bulls (40-42)

Point Guard: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Marquis Teague, Nate Robinson.
Shooting Guard: Richard Hamilton, Marco Belinelli.
Small Forward: Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler.
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson, Vladimir Radmonovic.
Center: Joakim Noah, Nazr Mohammed.

Miss me yet?

Things aren't looking pretty for this team without Rose. Kirk Hinrich will be taking over at Point Guard, and most of the scoring will have to be done by Hamilton, Deng, Boozer, and Noah. This is my highly optimistic forecast for Chicago, with the assumption that Rose may come back and win them a few games before the season's over. Noah and Boozer aren't bad at all, and they're certainly a formidable duo, but they aren't as good as they should be. Boozer has been a disappointment for Chicago since he left Utah and Noah has struggled with injuries throughout his career. If they can both stay healthy and increase their production they could be great this year. With Rose out, that will mean more shots for everyone, but particularly for the guys who step up the most. Those are obviously some big shoes for Hinrich and Teague to fill, even if it's temporary.

          They've also got Richard Hamilton starting at SG this year. He's 34 years old though, and nearing the end of his career. He averaged the fewest points per season (11.2) since his rookie year back in 1999. Then again, he also took the fewest shots per game since that same season so it's hard to tell just how much his production has dropped he shot just above his career average for FG% at 50.2% last season but only played 25 MPG. The question will be whether he gets an increase in playing time to 30+ minutes, or if Marco Belinelli will get as many minutes as him.
          Deng should be the best player on this Bulls team and a consistent scorer for them. He played great in the Olympics this summer for Britain and will hopefully carry that individual success into this season. He averaged 15.3 points (Second to Rose on the team), 6.5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.1 steals but only shot 41% from the field in nearly 40 minutes per game. He'll get at least a couple more shots per game with Rose out and if he can improve his percentages closer to 45%, he should score at least 20 PPG.

          Boozer and Noah have both dealt with injuries over the years, and a lot of this year's success will hinge on whether they stay healthy or not. They both averaged just less than a double double (Boozer with 15 and 8.5, Noah with 10.2 and 9.8) and finished with a PER of just under 20. Both of them played about 30 minutes a game and pleasantly played the entire season uninjured. Still, I think they have a chance to carry this team. if you watch the video clip on the left, two things stand out: 1. Derrick Rose was very much the life of this team, and they'll need a go-to crunch time guy without him. 2. Look at those dunks! Boozer and Noah will kill you in the post if you don't play good defense. That's something they'll have to capitalize on if they want to win games. Boozer and Noah, more than anyone else, will make or break this season for Chicago. While Boozer's performance in Chicago has often been seen as disappointing or frustrating, 15-9 is still pretty good. Not as good as the 21-12 seasons he put up a couple times in Utah, but couldn't that be blamed on playing with guys like Rose and Noah and getting fewer shots/rebounds rather than not being as good as he used to?
          Chicago has a fairly decent bench. They've got rookie Marquis Teague, who will back up Hinrich at PG. He should be alright playing 10-15 minutes a game, but didn't post any impressive stats in college (10 points, 4.8 assists) despite starting every game. It's a far cry from Rose, and while Chicago isn't new to playing without Rose, it'll be interesting to see how it works out over the course of the whole season. They have Marco Belinelli at SG, who came from New Orleans last season, and he will back up Hamilton and be a spark plug off the bench if he can revert to his 3FG% form the last couple seasons. Taj Gibson is a great SF/PF backup who averaged 7.7 points and 6.5 rebounds in only 24 minutes per game last season. If he played closer to 35 minutes, he could probably match Boozer and Noah statistically. Then they have Nazr Mohammed at Center. Mohammed played for the Thunder last season as an enforcer/rebounder/banger. He's 35 years old and has experience and is good at what he does. He shouldn't be counted on for too many minutes, but works well in short doses. If Noah ended up getting hurt, that would mean Mohammed (the only other center on the team) would have to play the majority of the Center minutes with Boozer getting the rest of those minutes.
          If this team can escape serious injuries they should be ok, but based off the past few years it always seems like someone gets hurt. They're really thin at the forward/center positions and their productivity and health there will be key. If injuries stay away for the season, I think they have a shot at the playoffs and maybe a .500 record. With the date of Rose's return still foggy, there's a chance he may be able t come back for the last 4-6 weeks of the season and galvanize the team into a run (assuming Rose makes a successful return). This is an optimistic prediction, but one I think they can reach as long as nothing horrible happens.