2012-2013 preview: Milwaukee Bucks

Eastern Conference #7: Milwaukee Bucks (42-40).

Point Guard: Brandon Jennings, Beno Udrih.
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis, Doron Lamb
Small Forward: Mike Dunleavy, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Power Forward: Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, John Henson.
Center: Samuel Dalembert, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, Joel Pryzbilla.


          This is a risk I'm taking here. The Bucks finished 31-35 last season, and got rid of Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino, and Stephen Jackson while adding Monta Ellis, Samuel Dalembert, and a pair of rookies in John Henson and Doron Lamb. So the first question would be why I expect them to do better than last year. Here's why...

          First of all, Bogut only played the first 11 games of the season before getting hurt. He was traded near the beginning of March to Golden State for Monta Ellis, and Milwaukee responded with a six game win streak and finished 16-11 after the trade. After that they got rid of Carlos Delfino during the offseason, who's production had dropped after the last couple seasons. They added Samuel Dalembert, an experienced center (31 years old) who averaged 7.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, shot 51% and played good defense for the Rockets in 22 minutes per game. If he were to play 35 minutes a game, he'd average a 13-12 with about 2.5 blocks per game. That's pretty good for a guy not a lot of people know about. He should see more minutes as the main big guy on the Bucks this season and will provide great interior defense. They also added Monta Ellis, the high-scoring combo guard from Golden State. Ellis' production dropped when he joined the Bucks partly because his shooting got worse, and partly because he didn't get as many shots as he did with GS. His FG% only dropped from 33% to 32%, but his 3FG% dropped from 33% to 26% when he joined although he did cut down to only two 3s per game. He also averaged six assists a game, but his game doesn't compliment Jennings' style very well. Jennings, the other guard for the Bucks, is also a trigger-happy shoot-first guard who took six 3s a game last season and making two of them. The two of them combined for 40 PPG and should continue to do so next season.
          Aside from Ellis and Dalembert, Milwaukee also added John Henson and Doron Lamb from the draft. Henson, a 6'11" PF, was a Junior at UNC last season and averaged 13.7 points, 9.9 rebounds. 2.9 blocks, and shot 50% form the field in 29 minutes a game. Lamb is a 6'4" shooting guard from UK who averaged 13.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and made two 3s per game while shooting 47% from three. While Lamb was a second round pick for the Bucks, he looks like a promising asset who could back up Ellis at SG or even play alongside him. If injuries ever hit Ellis, Jennings, or Udrih, then Lamb would see a major jump in minutes and shots. They're really thin at both guard positions and with their best players being at those positions, keeping their guards healthy will be key for the Bucks.

Milwaukee's MIP candidate

          Milwaukee also saw the emergence of Ersan Ilyasova during the second half of last season. For the last three months of the season, Ersan averaged 15.5 points, 10 rebounds, shot 54% from FG and an amazing 52% from three for the last two months. He mostly plays power forward, and he stays in the post most of the time which limits his number of threes per game. He doesn't play good defense, but this Bucks team already has established themselves as a team that will win by outscoring their opponents (they finished 4th in PPG last season, and first in the East). He had several incredible games, including a 29 point-25 rebound game against the Nets. He should get the starting spot at PF this season over Gooden, and hopefully will be able to replicate the last few months of last season. If he works on improving his defense and shooting just as well as he did, he could be in line for an MIP award. Ilyasova could become a lot like Ryan Anderson for the Bucks if he is given his deserved number of shots and shoots more threes. He's a better rebounder than Anderson though, and that may be what keeps Ilyasova in the paint for the most part. Whatever happens, I'm excited to see Ersan progress over this coming season.
          The position Milwaukee is definitely the weakest at is SF. They have Mike Dunleavy, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute and.... that's it. If neither of these guys produce well, we may see Ilyasova start playing some SF minutes which might not be a bad thing if he keeps his accuracy steady. Last season, Dunleavy averaged 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shot 47% and 40% from three in 26 minutes. Those aren't bad numbers, especially for the minutes he's playing, and it's nice to see his good percentages, but he doesn't play very many minutes and is a really inconsistent player. He'll play well one night and the next night shoot 1-9 in 15 minutes. You just never know with some guys. Mbah a Moute averaged 7.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and shot 51% in 23 minutes a game. If Dunleavy can become more consistent, he will likely play 30+ minutes this season and become a consistent wing player to space the floor and hit some threes. The Bucks don't really need another big scorer, but having a guy who can hit corner threes if Ellis or Jennings draw a double team will help them out a lot.
This Bucks team will be hard to figure out. The Nuggets were successful outgunning their opponents last season, but the Bucks don't have the same depth and aren't quite at that level of firepower. If their main guys like Ellis, Jennings, and Ilyasova can shoot well and not take too many threes unless they can make them (Ellis and Jennings combined for about 10 threes a game last season), and make smart decision, I believe they can make the playoffs. If Lamb or Henson develops into a solid backup, then that added depth will help them potentially relieve some scoring pressure from the guards. Jennings has improved his PPG and shooting percentage each of his first three seasons and could be set to jump up around 44-45% from the field. When him and Ellis figure out how to work with each other, they could be one of the deadly backcourt combos in this league. Bucks fans should be excited for this season. They'll have high-scoring fast paced games and look like they can win a good number of them. They're not contenders yet, but they're a step closer... and that's never a bad thing.