It all started about two years ago. When Lebron James went on national television and announced "The Decision" we weren't really surprised. It had been talked about for months about the potential for a new superpower to form. For months people had guessed that Lebron wouldn't stay in Cleveland. For months (and even years) ahead of that summer, teams cleared cap space to make a run at the best in the NBA. When he signed with Miami and everything was done, our interest soon dissipated and we asked "What next?"
What came next was Dwight Howard. Howard's presence in the NBA has been one of the few things keeping the disappearing image of dominant big men relevant. Over the past decades, its important to note that the two greatest NBA powerhouses, the Lakers and Celtics, always had a Hall Of Fame (or future HOF) center playing for them. Abdul-Jabbar, Chamberlain, Russell, Parish, Havlicek, McHale, Shaq, and now Howard. Now, I'm not saying that joining the Lakers means Dwight will be in the HOF someday, but history is certainly on his side. Howard's requirements to join those great names aren't fulfilled by joining a certain team though. Those requirements are met by consistently winning, putting up great numbers without becoming a Seven foot tall version of Kobe, and winning a few awards and rings along the way. Entering his eight season, Howard is primed and ready to begin racking up those rings alongside some truly remarkable talent. We need to remember though, that if Howard continues LA's storied history and leads the Lakers to a string of titles this decade and if his individual play continues to stand out during those years, that none of it would've happened without the past eight seasons.
I suppose I should make something clear here: I would love to see Howard cement his legacy as one of the best centers of all time. In fact, I'd accept just about any sort of dynasty coming from outside Miami. Its always fun to have an antagonist, and its even better when someone rises up to kick the bad guy's butt. Last season it seemed like the youthful Thunder would eventually become the team to beat the Heat but in fact, it now might be the Lakers. Check out that starting five for a minute: Nash, Kobe, Artest, Gasol, and Howard. That's four all-stars on one team. I never thought I'd say this but... I'm excited to watch the Lakers! Blasphemy maybe, coming from a longtime Blazers fan. I've come to the following reason for accepting my eagerness for these Lakers: The Blazers suck. Yeah, they have some good pieces in place, but they're not experienced, talented, or deep enough yet. It'll take three or four years for them to develop. That's about how much time (at the most) this Lakers team has to make a last couple title runs before they have to start rebuilding. So its ok for me to feel this way. At least that's what I keep telling myself...
Before delving into why this Lakers team has so much potential though, I want to go back and look at Howard's career in Orlando. Everything that he accomplished there will determine how well he fits in with the Lakers and will be the foundation for what we want to see him accomplish in the future. If we're looking back, I suppose we should start at the beginning. In 2004, the Magic took Howard with the first pick in the draft (over second pick stud Emeka Okafor!). His impact was immediate, and was felt by both Orlando and the rest of the league. His rookie season, Howard averaged 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.7 block per game while shooting 52%. He has yet to average less than those numbers in any other season. He finished third in ROY voting (behind Okafor and Ben Gordon), became the youngest person to average 10 RPG, and the youngest player to average a double-double in a season. He was also the first rookie drafted from high school to start in all 82 games of his rookie season. His efforts helped Orlando improve from 20 to 36 wins in his first season. During the offseason, Howard developed into a true center. He worked on his post game and his defense while adding 20 pounds of muscle. During his second season, Howard averaged 15.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 53% shooting. The Magic again finished with a 36-46 record however and injuries to key players Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson hampered the team throughout the season. Howard's continued improvement led the Magic to the 8th seed in the East to following season though, and despite being swept by the top seeded Pistons, Magic fans began to realize the hope that their franchise had. With Howard's continued improvement and Orlando's future looking brighter, the front office signed Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to strengthen Howard's supporting cast.
One problem I've always had with Howard in respect to claims of how good he really is, is the fact that he's THE true center of the NBA. When he entered the league Shaq's career was ending, and Marcus Camby was fading. Duncan was still going strong, but other than him, there was no dominant center. One thing Howard has always had in his favor is his size. 7'0' and all muscle. I've always wondered what his stats would be like in he played in a league more centered toward his position. For the past several seasons, the NBA has increasingly been becoming a league dominated by lengthy, athletic, multi-positional guys who can find the balance between taking over games and keeping everyone else involved. Howard is one of the few superstar exceptions. Lebron and Durant are the two guys who can do this the best. Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Kobe, Carmelo Anthony, and even Paul Pierce are examples of this. The point guard position has exploded in talent with guys like Westbrook, D-Will, Rondo, Paul, Rose, Nash, and Ty Lawon who can handle the ball, feed their teammates, hit jump shots (well... most of them can), and drive to the hoop. Their ability to do any of these three things on every possession gives them a great amount of power. Along with the new direction of the NBA comes the invention of superteams. It started in the summer of 2007 when the Boston Celtics gathered Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett onto the same team. After making a 42-game turnaround and winning the title, this spurred a panic my the other teams to form superteams of their own. The Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, OKC Thunder, and now the Lakers are all examples of this. That's why Orlando's three very successful years in the playoffs with Howard as the sole All-Star were astounding. Without Howard, they were nothing. That's why they're going to suck for the next decade.
Dwight was rewarded for his efforts with a new contract that gave him a maximum salary. They entered the 2007-08 season with high expectations, and weren't let down. Howard's personal statistics reached new heights, averaged 20.7 points, 14.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, and shooting 60% from the field. With the improved field of talent around him, Dwight led the Magic to the to the third seed in the East and into the second round of the playoffs where they again lost to the Pistons. Equally important though was Dwight's emergence as one of the NBA's best. He led the NBA in rebounding, finished the season with 69 double-doubles, won the Dunk contest, and was named to the All-Defensive Second team and All-NBA first team. Despite the rising power of Dwight, nobody really expected what happened next season.
The Magic won their second straight division title and again finished with the third seed in the East. Howard led the NBA in blocks and rebounding, made All-defensive and All-NBA first team, won the Defensive Player of the Year award, became the youngest player to ever win the DPOY award, and became the youngest player to reach 5,000 career rebounds. In the playoffs, Dwight led the Magic past the 76ers in the first round, beat the defending champion Boston Celtics in the second round, and shocked Lebron's Cavaliers in the Conference Finals. They lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals after five games. Despite high expectations, Orlando couldn't replicate this success. What followed was disappointment all around. Despite Howard continuing to rack up awards, such as 3 consecutive DPOY awards, leading the league in rebounds and blocks two straight season (only person to ever do so), becoming Orlando's all-time leading scorer, and continuing to make All-NBA and all-defensive teams, frustration grew all around. When the management couldn't get a championship, they jettisoned Turkoglu and looked for cap space by getting rid of Rashard Lewis and other role players. Howard in turn became frustrated that management was trying to clear space and rebuild instead of quickly getting quality players to help him. It then devolved into both sides throwing out rumors and insults against each other. Orlando's front office, Howard, Howard's agent, and other news sources were constantly feeding us with the latest on Dwight's "situation." First it was whether or not Dwight would sign the extension in his contract, which he did in March 2012. Before that, it was whether Orlando would trade Dwight or seemingly let him escape for nothing. First it was the Nets, who could've used a superstar big man in their new home of Brooklyn. Then it was Chicago. Then the Lakers. Then Golden State. Then the Mavericks and Clippers. Then NOT the Clippers. Then Houston. He signed a contract extension, which turned out to basically mean nothing. Trade talks continued. Finally, on August 10, reports of a finalized trade 19 months in the making surfaced: A blockbuster trade involving fellow all-stars Andrew Bynum and Andre Iguodola (If you want to see a detailed timeline of the trade saga, check out Bleacherreport's slideshow). It ends about a week before Howard was traded). This came only a month after the Lakers signed future hall of fame point guard Steve Nash. With Dwight's injury forcing him into surgery in April for a herniated disc in his back, the Magic finally decided to start over. The trade didn't just bring a new era to Orlando though; it introduced opportunities for many teams and players. All four teams involved in the trade are going to experience great changes, and we'll see three of them as serious contenders this year. Since we've already gotten this far, lets take a look at the future of each of these four teams:
Orlando Magic: The immediate loser in this trade, obviously. However, of the four teams involved in this trade, Orlando's outcome is the most difficult to predict. They easily acquired the most pieces in this trade: four role players in Christina Eyenga, Moe Harkless, Josh McRoberts, and Nikola Vucevic, two solid starters in Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington, and then five draft picks over the next 5 drafts. A second round pick from Denver in 2013, A first round pick from Denver in 2014, a first round pick from Philly and a second round pick from the Lakers in 2015, and a first round pick from the Lakers in 2017. They also got about $20 million in trade exceptions for the upcoming season. Right now, their starting five is Jameer Nelson, Arron Afflalo, Hedo Turkoglu, Al Harrington, and Glen Davis. All five players have the potential for a career on this team, but the question is whether any of them can do it. Orlando likely won't be a playoff team unless Glen Davis or Afflalo transform into an All-Star or Nelson finally lives up to expectations, but they won't be too bad. I can see them finishing anywhere between the 9 and 12 seeds in the East. Then again, Orlando's front office might decide to tank for a lottery pick. I think that in about 5-6 years, when they're getting the last of those draft picks, Orlando will be a contender again. They'll likely follow post-Lebron Cleveland's path, although they won't start out as bad as Cleveland.
Philadelphia 76ers: They gave up a first round pick in 2015, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bynum. Iguodala is the only one here that really means much. He was an All-Star and Olympic player last season, a do-it-all player who could score, pass, rebound, and defend. His defense has always been good, and that's probably what Philly will miss the most about him. Not to worry though, the 76ers have more young and athletic guard/forward combos. Their starting lineup looks to be Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Nick Young (?), Thaddeus Young, and Andrew Bynum. I'd be a lot more enthusiastic about this team if Lou Williams were still on their roster. Still, they have plenty of options with Dorell Wright, Jason Richardson, Spencer Hawes, and rookie Arnett Moultrie on the bench. This lineup looks to be very promising. They have a number one scoring option in Bynum, and all the starters have the ability to easily score 15-20 points on any given night. If Bynum can stay healthy, I can see him having a 20-12 season. He'll be the main big man in Philly and won't have guys of Kobe/Gasol caliber to share his shots with. The immediate future looks very promising for this team, and if Wright or Richardson proves to be a great 6th man, then they're even more dangerous. I see them finishing between the 3 and 7 seed in the East.
Denver Nuggets: the Nuggets traded Al Harrington, Arron Afflalo, and a 2014 first round pick for Andre Iguodala. Losing Harrington and Afflalo won't be a problem though. Denver has the young rising star Kenneth Faried set to play starter's minutes next season and they have Iguodala, Evan Fournier and Jordan Hamilton or Lawson to play the SG minutes. I'm excited to see how this team works out. They have an entire roster of quality guys: Kenneth Faried, Andre Miller, Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer, Iggy, Fournier, JaVale McGee, Danilo Gallinari, and maybe Jordan Hamilton. My first thought looking at this roster is that it looks like Iguodala will be primarily playing at SG for this team. Their current lineup at SF is just too deep for them all to take a backseat to Iggy. They've got Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer there. If Chandler could see a return to his normal averages (at least percentage-wise), then they'll be set there. In the eight games he played with Denver last season before getting injured, Chandler shot 39% from the field and 25% from three. For his career however, he's shooting 45% from the field and 33% from three. Assuming he recovers well from his injury he should revert back to normal for the upcoming season.
Another thing that pops out is the amount of collective talent. They're not a group of all-stars, but their talent runs deep. All of these guys would most likely play more minutes for another team, especially guys like Chandler or Miller who have to play off the bench despite their talent. If George Karl can control the egos in his team, we could see Denver become a sort of second coming of the Bad Boys Pistons teams from the early 1990s who won their titles through collective talent rather than individual success. Its hard to see where this Nuggets team will go. We're likely to see Lawson and Faried improve more, possibly even to contend for an All-Star spot. They also need to see McGee develop more to anchor their defense and control the boards. If things go right for them, I could see them getting homecourt advantage this season. They could finish anywhere between the 3rd and 8th seeds. I'm far more confident about my predictions for the East than the West.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers gave up Andrew Bynum, Josh McRoberts, Christian Eyenga, and two draft picks for Dwight Howard. They retained all their other starters and we should see them depend on their starters to play close to 40 minutes a night. They don't have much other than those five guys. Jordan Hill will be a solid backup for Dwight Howard, and they still have Steve Blake and Goudelock as backup guards. Still, their second string lineup looks less than intimidating: Chris Duhon, Steve Blake, Devin Ebanks, Antwan Jamison, and Jordan Hill. Jamison was a solid starter for Cleveland last year, averaging 17 points and 6 rebounds in 33 minutes, and he and Hill should be able to provide a good frontcourt relief for the Lakers. Despite all that, the starting lineup of Nash, Kobe, Artest, Gasol, and Howard is frightening regardless of who cheers them on from the bench. We know, however, that simply having the stars on the same team doesn't guarantee success. Everyone in LA's lineup will have to adjust to the changes and that brings up a lot of questions. In particular, I have five questions that will need to be answered if the Lakers want to win a championship with this roster. I'm omitting the question about Howard's recovery from his injury. If he doesn't recover well, LA is screwed.
1. Can Kobe adjust to Nash's style? Kobe has never played with a point guard like Nash. he had Derek Fisher for many years, and Sessions last season. Their styles of play are different. Nash is a pass-first guard who handles the ball and gets it where it needs to go. Kobe excels at handling the ball and creating a shot for himself. If Kobe isn't able to let Nash do his thing, then they'll have wasted their money on Nash. Nash isn't a good defensive guard, and isn't a great scorer either (although he did have the highest shooting percentage of his career last season). This is going to be an important question the Lakers have to figure out early. Kobe's always been a score first guy who takes a high number of shots and gets them by controlling the ball himself. If he finds a way to fit into Nash's system though, the whole team will benefit. Nash will be playing with an incredible amount of talent, and his options on every play will be endless. He's my early pick to lead the NBA in assists this season. With Nash able to alley-lop it to Howard on any given play and being able to drive to the hoop or hit a three, he's going to be an amazing asset for this team. Also, look for Artest to revive himself hitting wide open threes; almost like a bigger Ray Allen.
2. Can Pau work with Howard? Playing alongside Bynum, Gasol averaged 17.4 points and 10.4 rebounds on 50% shooting in 37.4 minutes. Whenever you have two seven footers playing together, there can be a problem of there not being enough space for them both to play as well as they would by themselves. WIth Howard, the closer he is to the hoop, the better he shoots (Check out basketball reference's shot finder). Gasol likes to take shots from farther away but, using that same link to look at Pau's shots, we see that he doesn't make enough for that shot to be beneficial. Playing alongside Howard, who is just as dominant in the post as Bynum, and maybe even more so, Pau will need to find a way to create his own space while taking high percentage shots. As important as this is, I think that with the addition of Howard, who is a far more consistent player than Bynum, Gasol will get fewer shot attempts. He shot 50% last season, which was actually the lowest percentage in his entire career. I could see him getting 2-4 fewer shots per game and a drop to 13-15 PPG. Those would be his lowest numbers in his career, but he's never played with so much talent either. If Howard comes back at full strength, we can expect to see Pau downgrade to a complimentary role in the frontcourt. This won't be a problem for the Lakers if Howard continues where he left off last season.
3. How strong will the Nash-Howard connection be? I thought about stating this as "will Nash and Howard work well together?" but decided that was a stupid question. Obviously they will. The question is how well. The connection between a point guard and his big man is always important, and this one seems very promising. Nash has always been a pass first point guard and while he's certainly near the end of his career, he can still handle the ball at a high level. He's averaged 10+ assists in seven of the past eight seasons and last year he shot 53% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. He only took nine shots a game last season, but the Lakers should be able to rely on Nash for 10-12 assists and 12-15 points each game. Not bad for their 4th or 5th scoring option. Because of Nash's great passing skills, we can expect the ball to be distributed more evenly and given to the best option on most occasions. We can safely expect Howard to get 2-3 easy lobs from Nash per game, and several highlight plays throughout the season.
4. Can Howard adjust to the Lakers? While the question of whether Kobe can adjust to Howard is an important question, an equally important question is whether Howard can adjust as well. For the first time, Howard will be playing with other All-Stars. Three of them actually. He was always the center of attention in Orlando and he loved it. While the city of LA is certainly excited to see him come join them, he won't be the only one in the spotlight anymore. In fact, once his welcome is over, Howard will probably take a backseat to Kobe, much like Bynum and Pau have. It's an interesting question of whether Howard will be ok with this or not. He'll have to adjust to not being the number one scoring option for his team and also, for the first time, not have to be the one carrying the team. It's possible that we may see him make a slight shift like LeBron did when he joined Miami. Since Lebron was no longer the only great scorer on his team he had to adjust based on the rest of his team. He took fewer shots (about 2 shots less per game), focused on defense more, took fewer outside shots (his 3PA per game dropped from 5.1 to 2.4 since his last season with Cleveland), played in the post more (and averaged the best shooting percentage of his career with 53%), and took over when his team really needed him to. For the Lakers, this might be pretty much what they need from Howard; fewer shots, staying in the post (he already does that anyway), and focusing on defense more than offense. Howard may not like this scenario, but if he's serious about winning a championship and establishing a legacy then he'll do what it takes for the Lakers to win. If he can't accept it, we may see him turn on the Lakers and become a disgruntled guy playing only so he can get a max contract after next season.
5. Will the saga continue next season? Howard has stated that he does not plan to sign an extension with the Lakers, meaning he wants to play with them next season and then leave. I find it hard to believe that the Lakers would give up Andrew Bynum for a single year of Howard, as good as he is. This could turn into another year of what we've been dragged through before this trade: talks of who's interested in Howard, LA's attempts to keep him, and rumors of whether or not the Lakers will trade Howard if he refuses to re-sign with them. If this happens it could certainly cast a shadow over an incredibly talented team and possibly mess up the team's chemistry enough to waste a shot at a championship. If the Lakers want to keep Howard past this season, they'll need to cater to his needs whether they're for the good of the team or not while also going far enough in the playoffs to show Howard his opportunities with this team.There's also the chance that Howard could grow to love the city of LA and its adoring fans enough that the nice weather, big market atmosphere, and a shot at glory, and decide to re-sign and become immortalized in the Lakers' legacy. If we've learned anything form the past two years though, it's that Howard won't make his decision quickly or quietly.
If things come together for the Lakers, I have a hard time seeing anyone beat them this season. They're my current favorites for the title and give us our best chance yet at seeing a Kobe-Lebron matchup in the Finals.
The most tantalizing part of all this is that we won't know anything for sure until the season unfolds and shows us. As good as this Lakers team could be and as excited as I am to see one of the greatest talent collections in the league, I'll still be hating on Kobe and rooting for the Blazers to become to first team to beat them come October 31. As an NBA fan, I'm excited. As a Blazers fan, I'm scared... and I'm sure everyone else outside of LA is too.
P.S: Apologies for a lack of links and videos in this column. I'll try to do better next time.
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