2012-2013 preview: Washington Wizards

Eastern Conference #13: Washington Wizards (28-54)

Point Guard: John Wall, AJ Price, Shelvin Mack
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, Jordan Crawford, Martell Webster.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza, Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton.
Power Forward: Emeka Okafor, Trevor Booker
Center: Nene, Kevin Seraphin.

The guy who could change it all

I'm not really sure what to think about this Wizards team. They started off last season just as bad as the Bobcats, winning just one of their first 13 games. After winning consecutive games just once during the season, they traded away Nick Young and JaVale McGee and got Nene from the Nuggets. They won eight of their last 12 games, including finishing the season with six straight wins, including two against the Heat. I'm not sure if this is because teams were slacking off at the end of the regular season to either rest player for the playoffs or tank for better draft seeds, or whether this trade genuinely signaled a turnaround for the Wizards.
Its possible that getting rid of trigger-happy Young and upgrading from McGee to Nene helped the Wizards, but probably not enough to entitle them to such a strong finish. They drafted Bradley Beal who doesn't really seem like a great choice for the third pick except the Wizards are already set at Center and need a versatile wing guy like Beal. Beal averaged 14.1 points, 6.7 rebounds. 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 44% shooting and 34% from three in 34 minutes. He's been compared to Ray Allen a lot, but his percentage from three makes me wonder if that's really accurate. He seems pretty athletic and should be able to score in many different ways and adjust to this Wizards team pretty well. Another guy who could be a driving force on this Wizards team is Nene. He joined the Wizards for the last 11 games of the season and averaged 14.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 61% shooting in only 25 minutes per game. In scoring per 48 minutes he ranked third among East centers for those games. If he could work on grabbing a few more rebounds, then he could be in the race for an all-star spot along with Andrew Bynum, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, and possibly Brook Lopez. Adding an imposing presence at center and a good defensive anchor who can also score efficiently should be a huge help for this team and give a good big man partner for John Wall.

Speaking of John Wall, he's entering the last year of his rookie contract. We'll probably soon see questions of whether the Wizards should resign him or not, and he'll want more money than what he's making now (almost $6 million), so is he worth it? He jumped onto the scene his rookie year, averaging 16.4 points, 8.0 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 41% shooting and 29% from three in 37.8 minutes. His stats last season were almost identical, except he also led the NBA in turnovers with four a game and shot a league worst 8% from three. He could easily average a double double if he played on a team with better shooters, although adding Beal and Nene could help him do just that. The next thing he has to do is work on his shooting. Wall has always been great at getting to the rim and impossibly finishing in traffic, but his percentages are tainted with jump shots, where he finished third worst in the league of anyone who took 200+ jump shots by shooting 31.2%. If his coaches can convince him to either make a serious effort to improve his long-range shot or just abandon it altogether, that should help him. Being able to shoot from farther away is always a plus in a guard, but if Wall just doesn't have to ability to do so than he should simply stop trying. Having Beal, who Could Washington live off Wall being a 15-10 guy who only scores from free throws and drives to the rim while shooting 45%? Yeah, I think so. Is he worth a fatter contract? Possibly. Paying $9 million to the league leader in turnovers isn't an appealing idea. If he can cut down on those turnovers and make smarter shooting decisions I think he'll be one of the better point guards in the league, but not on an all-star level.
So... what about the rest of the team? Their biggest names outside of Wall, Nene, and Beal are Trevor Ariza, Jordan Crawford, Emeka Okafor, and Jan Vesely. Okafor should be a great companion for Nene assuming he remains healthy. He only played 27 games last season after having a knee injury for the first 2/3s of the season, but came back to average 9.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 54% in only 28 minutes a game. If he is fully healthy this season he should be able to play upward of 30 MPG and the Wizards will have lots of flexibility playing both him and Nene at either PF or Center. The two of them combined could become one of the most formidable frontcourts in the NBA. They both play good defense and should work well together.
Jordan Crawford should hopefully take a backseat to Beal at the SG position, and Wizards fans should be thankful for that. Crawford averaged 14.7 points on 40% shooting and took close to five threes per game despite only shooting 28% from three. The trio of Wall, Crawford, and Nick Young combined to take 43 shots per game and make about 16 of those attempts. That's around 38%. So at least the Wizards know where to start in improving their team, and they seem to be on the right track.
The Wizards are a team with potential but probably won't be able to put it together this year. Wall will need more than this season to morph into a smarter point guard and Beal will likely need some time to transition. If they can stay healthy, this team could be playoff caliber in a couple of seasons. Right now, not so much.