Building for contention 101.

Before I say anything basketball related, I'd like to apologize to anyone who's been checking up on my blog for not posting anything this past month. I was bombarded by high school graduation, and then completing Finals and other school-related things. Now that summer is upon us though, I have a little more free time in which to spend on my blog. I know I said in my last column that I hope to be posting more regularly but this time I really mean it. Really. So now that that's out of the way... on to basketball! This article is for all my Blazers fans out there, and I hope you enjoy it! I was in the middle of a column about the NBA Finals finishing but I interrupted that for a quick (Yes, this is quick. Fastest 5,000 words I've ever written) column about the draft. Which is a mere 16 hours from the time I am publishing this article. So you'll likely be getting two columns from me in two days. Exciting! This column is, as the title suggests, how to build the Blazers into a Finals contender. Enjoy! (Note: I was recently told that paragraph breaks make things easier to read, so I tried implementing that in this column.)

Because I started my blog during the 2012 playoffs, I haven't yet gotten to write a post about my beloved Trailblazers. With draft day upon us, that is now going to change. I'd been thinking for awhile about ideas for a column about the Blazers, which was solved by repeated Facebook and face-to-face conversations about the best ways to use this draft to rebuild the Blazers into a contender. But first, a quick recap: The Blazers finished the 2010-11 season 48-34 and in the sixth seed in the West. They lost in the First round of the playoffs, but not before producing an unforgettable Game 4 (all credit to Brandon Roy) that was, to this day, most exciting sports game I've ever watched. To think I bought tickets to Game 3 instead of Game 4...
          After that, we went through the lockout offseason as well as questions about Brandon Roy's future. On December 10, 2011, two weeks before the start of the NBA season, Brandon Roy retired due to his degenerate knees. Five days later, the Blazers signed Jamal Crawford to replace Roy at the 2-guard. During the offseason, Portland also traded the widely disliked Point Guard Andre Miller for Raymond Felton, who basically wasn't any different (Please note that sarcasm and jokes about some of these players will be evident. Because I watched almost every Blazer game this season, I feel like its ok). Don't believe me on the Miller-Felton Comparison?
Raymond Felton (2011-2012): 31.8 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 40% FG, 30% 3FG, 81% FT. 10.7 FGA, 3.4 3PA, 2.1 FTA. 60 Games played.
Andre Miller (2010-2011): 32.7 MPG, 12.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.4 SPG, 45% FG, 11% 3FG, 84% FT. 10.4 FGA, 0.5 3PA, 3.6 FTA. 81 Games played.
So yeah... basically the same thing. Miller shot from the field and line a little better and passed slightly more. Of course, the stat that pops out is Miller's incredible 11% from 3. He took 37 3s in the 2010-11 season and made just 4 of them. Out of all point guards who took more than 10 3s in the season, Miller finished last in percentage. Really though, other than Miller's awful long-range shooting, Miller was actually a little better than Felton, but not by much. Interesting since now, after one season, Blazer fans feel the same way about Felton as they did about Miller.
          Coming into the season, Blazer fans were optimistic. Sort of. We'd lost Brandon Roy, our all-star. But other than that, we were excited. We had a new point guard who we still had faith in. We had Lamarcus Aldridge, who finally revealed his potential and should have been an all-star the previous season. We had Gerald Wallace, the Forward we'd traded for midway through 2011 and who we'd embraced. We had hope that Jamal Crawford could ease the loss of Brandon Roy. Crawford had played very well the three seasons before in Atlanta and been one of the best sixth men in the league.
          The season started out well. Two weeks in we were 7-3 and seemed to be running well. However, after cooling off over the next couple months the Blazers were 18-16 at the All-Star break. Despite Aldridge being selected to the All-Star team, the Blazers didn't have much else to be happy about. Crawford and Felton were having problems adjusting to Coach Nate McMillan and weren't getting along well. That was coupled with continuing problems at the Center position. With Oden out yet another year with injuries and Marcus Camby and the NBA's oldest man Kurt Thomas handling Center duties, the Blazers signed Joel Przybilla from Free Agents on February 27 almost exactly a year after they'd traded him to the Charlotte Bobcats.
          On March 15, the Blazers front office made the decision to throw everything out. They traded Marcus Camby who, ironically, was their healthiest and best center that season to the Houston Rockets for two studs: Hasheem Thabeet and Jonny Flynn, both of whom had expiring rookie contracts. For anyone who doesn't know who they are, Thabeet and Flynn were both top 10 picks in the 2009 draft who sucked. A lot. Thabeet was the highest draft pick to ever be sent to the D-league. Flynn was considered one of the best point guards in college, but didn't translate his success to the NBA. At all. One fun fact though: Hasheem Thabeet's first name in Tanzanian (He was born in Tanzania) translates to "Destroyer Of Evil". Needless to say, I've made plenty of jokes since he joining Portland of him destroying Kobe. Back to the trade, Portland also got Houston's second round draft pick for the 2012 draft.
          That same day, that Blazers also traded Gerald Wallace to the New Jersey (Now Brooklyn) Nets for more talent: Mehmet Okur (who was traded at the start of the season to the Nets from the Hornets in exchange for a 2015 second round pick. Yes, that's right. a second round pick 4 years in the future.) and Shawne Williams, who has played for six teams in six seasons in the NBA. Both Okur and Williams also have expiring contracts making them free agents this offseason. Portland also, however, got New Jersey's first round pick in the 2012 draft which ended up being the #6 pick.
          To top it off, on the same day the Blazers also finally cut Greg Oden from the team to make way for the expiring contracts passing through. Nate McMillian was also fired and assistant Kaleb Canales was named interim Head Coach. A few days after that, the Blazers signed free agent Power Forward JJ Hickson, who showed a lot of promise. He was signed with 19 games left in the season but due to Portland deciding to tank for a better playoff seed, playing LaMarcus, in this case, was actually a bad thing because you only want to win games if it gets you somewhere good like the playoffs. A note to all future GMs out there: If you know you aren't going to make it to the playoffs, play your crappy guys and lose every game so you can draft one hopefully great guy at the end of the season. That's how its done. Of course if you're Portland that doesn't always turn out well (See: Greg Oden).
          After that, the Blazers finished the season a miserable 10-22 and finished 28-38. That record was good for the 11th pick in the draft. Currently, the blazers have only six players under contract for next season: LaMarcus Aldridge, Luke Babbitt, Wesley Matthews, Nolan Smith, Kurt Thomas, and Elliott Williams. Hickson was recently granted Bird rights for Portland, so we can expect him to be locked up soon. The big question is whether Nicholas Batum will be back next season. Batum is a restricted free agent this offseason and after the Blazers didn't resign him during the season, there's been questions about whether he will be back on the roster. its been well known that Batum has been sought after by many teams and his availability will almost assuredly come with offers from multiple teams. Jamal Crawford has said, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, that he plans to opt out of his contract with Portland. Same with Raymond Felton. That means we could potentially be looking for security at every position except Power Forward, where Aldridge and Hickson have us covered.
          This column is primarily about what I think the Blazers should do this offseason. So now that we have facts and guesses on players staying and leaving lets turn to something more important: The draft. The 2012 NBA draft has been heralded as one of the deepest and most talented in years. The top names are expected to be great successes in the NBA, and the class of 2012 is led by superstar Anthony Davis or, as you may know him, "The Unibrow". While we're on the subject of Anthony Davis' weirdness, he recently trademarked his unibrow. Yes, that's right. Not a joke. He trademarked his unibrow. He hasn't even been drafted yet and Anthony Davis is already showing some signs of being an entertaining off-court NBA player for years to come. Want more pictures of Anthony Davis? Check out his teeth.
Wow.
Still, even though he looks weird, Davis' stats back him up as a legitimate star ready for the NBA. He played as a freshman for Kentucky and averaged 14.5 points on phenomenal 62% shooting and grabbed 10.3 rebounds per game. Not only that, but his defense stands out as highlighted by his 4.7 blocks per game. He also shot 71% from the line and, with improvement, we can be assured he won't be the Hack-A-Shaq successor. Almost everyone has Davis being drafted first by the Hornets, but wherever he goes be sure that he will have a great affect. His future as a star in the NBA will only come as he matures and gets more experience. My only question is which facial feature he will promote next...

After Davis, there are a number of big names out there. Debates over the number two draft pick includes the names Bradley Beal (Likened to Ray Allen), Thomas Robinson, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (MKG). Other names after that include Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond, Austin Rivers (Doc Rivers' son), Kendall Marshall, Tyler Zeller, and Dion Waiters.
For the Trailblazers, there are five players that they could realistically look at taking with the sixth and 11th picks in the draft: Andre Drummond at the sixth pick, Damian Lillard at the sixth pick, Kendall Marshall at the 11th pick, Tyler Zeller at the 11th pick, Dion Waiters at the 11th pick, and Meyers Leonard at the 11th pick. Lets start by taking a quick look at each of these players.


Andre Drummond: Drummond is a 6'11" Center from UConn. He has been called one of the rawest players at this level of the draft, but lots of promise. The big question is whether the potential promise for the future is worth the investment in someone who isn't as good right now. Drummond is probably the most physically impressive player in the draft at nearly 7 feet even and 280 pounds, which makes him hard to pass up for a team with a pair of ancient guys playing Center. He averaged 28.4 minutes to go with 10 points on 54% shooting and 2.7 blocks and 7.6 rebounds. He is a beyond horrible FT shooter at 30%. His defensive presence seems to be more promising than his offensive growth, but that could change. I don't think Drummond is a very good choice for Portland at the sixth pick. He's assuredly a physically imposing center, and someone who could fill a hole in Portland's roster, however his lack of experience and question of how he will turn out in the NBA worries me. Despite that, there is the distinct possibility that I could be completely wrong and Drummond could become a future star in the NBA. He's probably the biggest gamble for Portland that will either turn out great or horrible.


Damian Lillard: Lillard is a point guard who played for Weber State. His playing in a small conference is a little worrying and raises questions about the validity of his statistics. He led the NCAA in scoring with an incredible 24.5 points per game and 5.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He shot 47% from the field and 41% from downtown though, so his percentages are good. Despite his high volume scoring, scouts have assured teams that Lillard is a perfectly capable passing guard and will be able to play the role of point guard in the NBA. His combine results were impressive and he showed great athleticism and a good ability to get the the rim. Another thing to point out with Lillard is that he played all four years in college. He's 22 years old as opposed to many of the prospects coming out of their freshman year. Lillard has improved every year at Weber State and his growth has been evident. While his being three years older could be both good and bad, drafting Lillard seems more on the safe side. He has more experience and is more proven. With the assumption that Felton is leaving, which is pretty sure, then the need for a point guard is just as great as the need for a center. The thing with Lillard is that in playing in the Big Sky Conference, he hasn't exactly gone up against the superstars of the NCAA. However, as long as we don't expect Lillard to score like he did in the NCAA I think we'll be fine. I like Lillard because we know he can score inside and outside (something we haven't had from a point guard in a long time) and he's more proven than most of the prospects in this draft. Plus, the talent of point guards in this draft isn't good at all. If we don't take Lillard at the sixth pick, we're drafting a point guard in the second round or looking to trade for one.


Kendall Marshall: Just as Lillard is the score-first point guard, so Marshall is the pass-first. He averaged 9.9 assists and 7.7 points for the North Carolina Tar Heels as a Sophomore. he's been likened to Steve Nash, but I think Jason Kidd would be a better comparison. His shooting is good (47%) but could use some long range work (35%). His shooting from the line is disappointing at 60%, but despite that I think he could be a great score and pass guy. At the highest levels of potential, I think he could be a Rajon Rondo type guy. If the Blazers decided to take Marshall, he would be at the 11th pick. The question here would be whether they want Lillard or Marshall controlling their offense.


Tyler Zeller: Zeller is a 7 foot center from the Tar Heels. He weighs 250 pounds and has good athleticism and strength. He's developed a good hook shot at UNC and good defense as well. He averaged 28.2 minutes, 16.3 points on 55% shooting, 9.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 81% from the line. Zeller is another 22 year old who played all four years at UNC so at least he's proven and has experience. However, Zeller has been labeled as a "safe" pick for Portland and if they decide to take Lillard at the sixth pick, Zeller would be an obvious choice here.


Meyers Leonard: Leonard is a 7'1" prospect from Illinois. He's been seen as a high-risk high-return pick who will either be the biggest bust or biggest steal of the draft. Some have called him a good D-league potential but his combine results were very promising where scouts loved his moves and athleticism. He's probably too big of a risk for Portland though, especially when compared to the other talent on board. I'd rather take the risk with Drummond than with Leonard.


Dion Waiters: Waiters is a combo guard from Syracuse who mostly plays at Shooting Guard. Waiters has some of the tools of Dwayne Wade, including a great first step, ability to get to the rim and draw fouls, and can take contact. He averaged 12.6 points on 48% shooting and 2.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists. He shot 37% from downtown and 71% from the line. If the Blazers want to rebuild their backcourt completely, then drafting Waiters is the best thing to do. With Crawford seemingly gone, the question is how faithful the Blazers are in Wesley Matthews. Matthews is decent for sure, but his numbers aren't likely to improve any more than they already have these past couple seasons. I've heard conversation about trying to trade Matthews for someone else, be it a guard or center. I say we keep Matthews. Sure, his stats regressed over the season and he had some awful shooting nights. We can all admit that some players just have bad years for various reasons. I'm confident, however, that Matthews could return next season playing like he did his first year with us. Putting up 16 points, 3-5 rebounds and assists each night and draining a three or two as well as shooting decently. Matthews still shot 38% from the 3 after shooting 41% the season before. People have worried that perhaps his peak has already passed and he will only continue to regress. That's not true.


 I say he won't for a reason that hold true for the statistical problems for not just Matthews but also Felton, Crawford, and Wallace last season. This wasn't a real team. They didn't care about winning. Heck, a number of them openly quit on the coach and forced McMillan out. LaMarcus Aldridge was the leader on the court. An All-Star, solid on both ends, always cared, and tried to lift his teammates. But when does an All-Star and the guy front offices cater to connect with the guys who are dissatisfied with what they're getting? Aldridge may have led by example on the court, but the rest of the team didn't follow and Aldridge had no control over his team behind the scenes. In the past, players like Roy, Juwan Howard, and Joel Przybilla have led behind the scenes in the locker room. I guarantee that Przybilla wasn't resigned just because the Blazers needed another Center. When they signed him over the All-Star break, they hadn't yet totally fallen apart. Trades hadn't been made yet but that was when it started becoming apparent that McMillan no longer had control over his team. Przybilla had been a leader in the locker room in the past for Portland. A guy who could talk to other players and get them to work together. $600,000 for a guy who could potentially get everyone to get along again? Of course the front office was going to try that. Coming into this year however, the Blazers need a new guy to fill that role. LaMarcus has tried and failed. We can't expect a rookie to take that role or anyone new to the team. In my opinion, Wesley Matthews needs to become that guy. The locker room leader. The glue guy. The one who can relate to everyone else but still get them focused. Why does this have anything to do with his stats? Try doing anything with a bunch of teammates who are openly unhappy and willing to break your team apart to get what they want. Your effectiveness is going to suffer as well. The attitude's effects spread. After tossing that idea around in my head for awhile, I went online and looked around for anything that could back me up. Sure enough, Blazers writer Jason Quick had an article with those exact points. I think that Matthews needs to stay. If we draft Waiters and he develops into a starter, I think that's great. But I don't think we should trade Matthews and trust our shooting guard position to Nolan Smith and Dion Waiters. I don't think the Blazers could trade for a Shooting Guard any better than Matthews unless they wanted to give up someone else like Batum, Felton, or even Aldridge. Back to Waiters though, I think that while he might be a great player someday, I don't think he's worth the risk for the Blazers. To draft him would mean we would need to dedicate a large portion of the Shooting Guard minutes to developing him and I'm not sure that's as important as filling to Point guard and Center holes. If the Blazers could draft a Point Guard or Center and trade for the other position, then Waiters might be a good pick. But only then.
       
Of course, just because the Blazers have the six and 11 picks doesn't mean that's where they'll be drafting come draft day. There's ben talk of the Blazers perhaps trying to trade up to the 2 or 3 picks but trading both our picks for that doesn't seem justifiable and I don't expect that to happen. Last minute trades involving draft picks are nothing new to the Blazers and we likely won't know where the Blazers actually pick until David Stern announces it Thursday night. However, I think that the Blazers need to keep these picks. Drafting a young point guard with promise will give us a long-term future at the position and simultaneously reduce the effect of the petulant Felton. There's been talk of Portland trading for a center as well. Now consider my proposal... the Blazers have some considerable cap space. With JJ Hickson being granted Bird rights, that means his signing with the Blazers will not affect our cap space. Without Batum we have $24 million in cap space. His preliminary offer is for about $6 million but I expect him to receive an offer for more from another team so expect this to potentially reach closer to $8 million. That leaves us with room for an All-Star. Again, think about this it makes sense. One of Portland's best options, if not its best, is to trade for Pau Gasol. Yes, Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers. Gasol plays Power Forward but has the size and ability to play Center. He's done it before for extended periods. The Lakers have been asking around about trades for Gasol. They're asking for a top 10 pick and another solid player. I say we offer them the sixth pick and Raymond Felton. The Lakers are openly desperate the trade Gasol, so there's also a possibility of the Blazers even getting away with trading them the 11th pick instead of the sixth if the Lakers don't get any other decent offers. The Lakers haven't worked very well with Ramon Sessions and have said they're open to looking for a new Point Guard. The sixth pick would allow the Lakers to draft a young Point Guard or Center/Power Forawrd to potentially lock them up long-term at that position. With Gasol though, we'd use up our cap space on him. $19 million for each of the next two years. Thankfully in doing this trade we'd also get rid of Felton's $7.5 million contract so that's how we could afford it. They'd also get a solution at Point Guard for at least awhile and the Blazers would get rid of a player who did nothing but hurt us last season. I think the Lakers would take that offer and I think the Blazers would be smart to do it as well. Sure there's been plenty of negative things said about Pau over the years, but he's remained a double-double machine for multiple years now and averaged around 20 PPG despite playing with Kobe and Bynum. For the Blazers, he would bring some much needed experience and veteranship as well as strength and a great post player. He's an All-Star and plays like one. And he could be available for us. If we make that trade and take Kendall Marshall at the 11th pick, we get a great post player and All-Star as well as a good passer and ball handler. How does a lineup of Marshall, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, and Gasol sound? I like it. Especially if Wallace and Matthews can put up the numbers they did for the 2010-11 season. Of course, there are always other names being thrown around as possible rumors of trade rumors.

Also, an unexpected addition to this column of trade ideas. About 30 minutes ago, ESPN reported that the Houston Rockets traded up for the 12th pick in the draft.  Here's a great idea that probably won't happen but would be amazing for Portland if it did: Offer Houston Felton and the sixth pick for Kyle Lowry and the 12th pick. I love Kyle Lowry. I started liking him when he was on my fantasy team last year where he was a stat stuffer. Check out these stats: 14.3 points on 41% shooting, 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 38% from 3 in 32 minutes. Want a clincher on that deal? Lowry's contract is worth $11.5 million total for the next two years. We would then have the 11th and 12th picks to take Kendall Marshall and either Waiters or Zeller. If we got Lowry, then drafting a Point Guard would no longer be a priority for us. If we could get rid of Felton and add Waiters to share the guard minutes (He's actually a combo guard and can play at Point or Shooting which makes him even more likable in my opinion), we can at the same time get a big man in the draft as well. How about a lineup of Lowry, Waiters/Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, and Zeller. Not only that, but Lowry's amazing contract leaves us cap space to shore up our bench talent! If we could pull this one off I think we could turn things around very quickly. Look how young that lineup is! All seven players are under 30 years old. Matthews and Aldridge are the oldest at 26. Could someone please get this idea to Portland's front office right away?
        
The thing to remember as draft day passes is that things are unpredictable. Many things are attempted to be kept hidden until trades are announced and, with Portland in particular, teams love making last minute draft day trades. I can almost completely assure you that something happens that I didn't speculate about in this column and it would be impossible to cover everything. Knowing the Blazers, we'll probably end up with someone like Nick Collison as our draft day acquisition. And you know what? That's ok, Its a rebuilding process. it can't happen overnight. This will be a year of developing the draft picks we get and regardless of anything that happens trade wise, expect new faces at both Center and Point Guard for Blazer fans. I'm excited and I hope you are too. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go finish my article about Lebron winning a ring. And if I rile myself up enough over the next 12 hours, maybe I'll even do a live blog of the draft. Who knows. Draft day is unpredictable. See you all soon.