Tuesday, May 29, 2012

The Pre-Finals Finals.

We're halfway through the NBA playoffs, and only four teams remain in the hunt for the Championship. We are set for a highly anticipated Thunder-Spurs matchup between two of the best teams in the league that has Finals-worthy excitement brewing about it. With that being said, we'll be going over everything you need to know for the Western Conference Finals including every relevant player, more statistics than anyone needs to know, breaking down starters and bench players, and looking at why this matchup is so important for the legacies of players on both teams.
First, lets take a look at how both teams got here as well as some highlights from their first two playoff rounds.
San Antonio Spurs:
Round 1: Defeated Utah Jazz 4-0. Highlights for Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4.
     Looking back at the Spurs' first-round matchup against the Utah Jazz, it was always obvious that the Jazz weren't going to be much of a challenge for this balanced Spurs attack. Utah's biggest potential advantage, their big men, couldn't rise to the occasion enough to make this a real series. The Spurs played a rotation of 11 men during this series. Tony Parker averaged 21 points and 6.5 assists, Duncan had 14.5 points and 8.8 rebounds, and eights players averaged at least 7 PPG. Manu Ginobili had a bad first round, averaging 8.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 25 MPG on 39% shooting and a miserable 21% from the three.
Round 2: Defeated Los Angeles Clippers 4-0. Highlights for Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4.
     San Antonio defeated a much-hyped team that's completely recreated its identity this season. As impressive as Lob City has been, they never actually stood a chance against the Spurs. The Clippers have some amazing franchise pieces in Griffin, Paul, and several good role players, but its going to take them another couple years before they have the experience to make a serious playoff run. The Spurs showed their ability to run teams off the court yet again in another dominating sweep. In both playoff rounds now,  the Spurs have won a total of six games by 10+ points, with four games by 15+ points. Game 4 against the Clippers where the Spurs won 102-99 was their closest game since their last loss on April 11. What we can take away from this 18 game win streak is that this Spurs team isn't just winning. They're blowing teams out. Their collective talent is incredible. They'll finally get a worthy matchup against the Thunder in the WCF.

Oklahoma City Thunder:
Round 1: Defeated Dallas Mavericks 4-0. Highlights for Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4.
     The Thunder started out the playoffs with a 2011 WCF rematch. This time, Dirk's heroics weren't enough to save Dallas. The Thunder made a serious statement by sweeping the defending champion Mavericks. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led the way for the Thunder, with Durant hitting some clutch shots late in close games. even though the Mavericks were defending champions, its no surprise that the Thunder beat them this time. They have another year of experience, while the Mavericks are a year older.
Round 2: Defeated Los Angeles Lakers 4-1. Highlights for Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, Game 4, and Game 5.
     Of course, the Thunder-Lakers matchup was going to have some tension after Artest leveled James Harden in one of the last games of the regular season. Artest was welcomed back in Game 1 by the Thunder fans, and not in a kind way. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers were defeated in the second round for the second straight year, and it seems like their time may be coming to an end. Despite Bynum developing into an all-star and one of the best big men in the game, Both him and Gasol don't see the ball consistently enough to become serious offensive threats with Kobe on their team. The Thunder's victory over the Lakers signals a changing of the guard you could say. Kevin Durant's team beat Kobe Bryant's team for the first time, and it looks like its going to stay that way.

After seeing the first two rounds, its clear that these two teams are by far the best and most talented teams in the Western Conference if not in the whole league. The Miami Heat are the only team in the East that will be able to challenge either of them, and even then I have Miami as a semi-long shot for winning the Finals. Lets start this breakdown by looking at the relevant players for both teams. Each team will have their rosters broken down into one of four categories: Stars/leaders, major contributors, role players, and minor players. We're setting the limit to players who average 10 MPG and eliminating players at the end of the bench who only play in blowouts. So here we go:


San Antonio Spurs: 
Stars: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker.
Major contributors: Manu Ginobili
Role Players: Daniel Green, Kawhi Leonard, Boris Diaw.
Minor contributors: Gary Neal, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, Stephen Jackson.

OKC Thunder:
Stars: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook.
Major Contributors: James Harden, Serge Ibaka.
Role Players: Kendrick Perkins, Derek Fisher.
Minor Contributors: Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison, Nazr Mohammed, Daequan Cook.

Looking at the Stars and Major Contributors for each team, it seems apparent that OKC has the edge. Their three best players have a greater impact on the court, at least statistically. Lets look at the statistics for these guys:


San Antonio: 
Tim Duncan: 32 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.88 BPG, 1.3 TPG, 54% FG, 79% FT.
Tony Parker: 35 MPG, 19.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 7.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.3 TPG, 43% FG, 81% FT.
Manu Ginobili: 26.3 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.5 APG, 0.75 SPG, 2.4 TPG, 40% FG, 78% FT.

OKC:
Kevin Durant: 40.7 MPG, 26.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.11 BPG, 1.33 SPG, 3.2 TPG, 49% FG, 84% FT.
Russell Westbrook: 36.0 MPG, 26.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.89 SPG, 1.6 TPG, 47% FG, 81% FT.
James Harden: 30.3 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.1 TPG, 42% FG, 90% FT.
Serge Ibaka: 28.2 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.67 BPG, 54% FG, 60% FT.

Again, Durant and Westbrook look significantly better than Duncan and Parker on paper. James Harden's development into Sixth Man of the year has helped the Thunder tremendously as well. He's 6'5" and plays at Shooting Guard but handles the ball when Westbrook isn't in the game. He can create opportunities for himself and for teammates, and that's huge. Not only that, but Harden's Adjusted field goal percentage was an amazing 58% with only only Tyson Chandler finishing better than his (a ridiculous 68% which is the highest percentage recorded in the past 12 years.). If he wasn't playing behind Durant and Westbrook and having his shots limited (10 FGA per game this season), he'd be averaging 20+ PPG and be a star on many other teams. His poor shooting (42%) in the postseason is what's limiting him in the playoffs. He's clearly a rising star in this league, and as his minutes increase so do all his other stats. He's improving as an individual and team player and enters free agency after the 2012-13 season. If he continues to develop, we could possibly see OKC trading him or Harden signing with another team that summer. Harden could get a lot of publicity and spotlight on most teams if he weren't stuck behind two of the best players in the NBA. Right now, OKC fans are finally starting to really appreciate him and that could help him a lot. For now, we'll make do with being excited about the growth of a 22 year old guard with the best beard in the NBA (as well as what looks like an attempt at a mohawk).
Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka made a major jump as well this year, establishing himself as the 4th best player and defensive beat for this Thunder team. He averages just under 10 PPG, but he only averages 9 shots a game. He led the NBA in blocks this season with 3.7 a game and generated some DPOY buzz once the Dwight Howard situation imploded and people started to dislike him. He got 10+ blocks in four games this season, got some triple-doubles, and turned 22 years old. Again, he shoots well enough to get 12-15 points a game, but with Westbrook and Durant combining for 39 FGA per game, there's not many left to go around. I'm excited to see Ibaka and Harden continue to improve for the next 3-4 years. Hopefully Harden will join the starting lineup soon, giving us one of the all-around best lineups in the league that could soon feature four all-stars. Don't believe me? Lets imagine 3 years from now. Duncan and Dirk are finally too old to be all-stars, which leaves us the Gasol brothers, Griffin, maybe Millsap, and Ibaka. Since Ibaka is the most likely to make improvements in his game, isn't it possible for him to make it as a backup big man considering Marc Gasol and Millsap are iffy for retaining their status? Absolutely. As for Harden, once Kobe finally leaves (which I know could be awhile), who else is there at the 2 guard in the west? Arron Afflalo? Jason Terry? Manu Ginobili? I didn't even realize what a lack of elite 2-guards we have in the west until I looked this up. Although to be fair, the East has Joe Johnson, Iman Shumpert (although who knows how he'll turn out now), Jordan Crawford, and Paul George. Could the NBA please invest in some exciting 2-guards? No wonder Kobe still plays so well. There's nobody to fight him for top dog status at his position. If only Brandon Roy had stayed healthy...

Tony Parker, who just turned 30 years old, had a great season and generated some MVP talk even though the credit goes just as much to Duncan as Parker. Parker was one of the best PGs this season. For this list, I'm not counting Derrick Rose since I feel like he didn't play enough for us to grasp how good he actually was. Here's a list of the NBA's top 5 PGs this season:
1. Chris Paul
2. Rajon Rondo.
3. Tony Parker.
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Deron Williams (who was secretly awesome even though he dropped off the face of the earth after joining the Nets. He averaged 21 PPG and 8.7 APG.)

Paul and Rondo are clearly at another level, with Rondo averaging 13.3 APG in the first two rounds of the playoffs and picking apart defenses like crazy. Paul showed up again this season with 19.8 PPG and 9.1 APG as well as saving a perennially crappy franchise. As much as Clippers fans might want to think so, Blake Griffin was NOT leading that team to the playoffs by himself. You could make the argument to put Westbrook ahead of Parker, but I feel like Parker did more for his team, and led his team to a better record. Williams played great all season, but he's on the Nets. Not much else to say. Parker's 18.3 PPG and 7.7 APG in the regular season have been a focal point in why this Spurs team led the NBA in scoring during the regular season. This Spurs team is all about offense and outscoring the other team, and that's what Parker helps the Spurs do.
But if we're talking about offense as being the key, we can't overestimate the impact Durant and Westbrook will have. They can both create for themselves and their teammates and make clutch plays. They're combining for 50.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG, and 7.8 APG. They're by far the best duo in the playoffs other than James and Wade.
To take a better look at the key matchups, lets go over the starting five of each team and match them up by position. From there we can try and predict how they will play against each other and which team comes out ahead. Keep in mind that players might not always defend the other person at their position though. Also, we're listing playoff statistics now instead of regular season statistics because I feel like the first two rounds are a large enough sample that we can trust them.

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Tony Parker.
Westbrook: 36.2 MPG, 23.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.8 TPG, 2.5 A/TO, 46% FG, 35% 3FG, 80% FT, 5.6 FTA, 19.7 FGA, 2.6 3PA.
Parker: 35.3 MPG, 19.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.11 SPG, 3.3 TPG, 2.1 A/TO, 43% FG, 33% 3FG, 80% FT, 7.2 FTA, 15.1 FGA, 1.0 3PA.

From this, we can see that Westbrook shoots and scores more than Parker and Parker passes more often. For almost every two shots that Parker takes, he gets an assist. For every assist Westbrook gets, he takes almost five shots. While we're on this topic, Westbrook's assist number have dropped from where they were during the regular season from 5.5 to 4.5. For a Point Guard, that might seem ridiculously low until we consider how often Westbrook shoots and how often Durant creates his own shot. Quite simply, this isn't a team that passes the ball around too much. The Thunder finished last in the NBA in APG with 18.5. That number has dropped to 17.3 in the playoffs. As much as it seems like a point guard's job is the manage the offense and pass the ball instead of being a shoot-first guy, that's just how the Thunder play and you can't argue with the results. Another key to Westbrook's play is his turnover numbers. He's had a total of four turnovers in his last five games, which is incredible considering he turned it over nearly four times a game in the regular season. His shooting percentages have been good, although you don't want him shooting too many threes.
As for Parker, his numbers have stayed similar to how he played in the regular season. He doesn't shoot quite as well as Westbrook, but that's fine because the Spurs have more scoring options than the Thunder. His turnover numbers have jumped over the playoffs from 2.5 per game to 3.3. Playing against Westbrook could increase that number even more if he doesn't take care of the ball well. Tony Parker isn't an all-star, but don't underestimate his effect on this team. He runs the offense and gets the ball where it needs to go while doing a little bit of everything else.
Parker isn't known for his speed, so Westbrook may come into this series trying to wear Parker out and run past him. If he can do that, we should see a lot of penetration into the paint by Westbrook and some defensive scrambling by the Spurs. If Perkins and Ibaka can defend the paint, Westbrook will have to settle for pulling up from around the foul line of farther out even if he does get past Parker.
Everything tangible points to Westbrook being better than Parker, but I can't help but look at what the Spurs have done along with Parker's importance to that team. Parker was the number one or two guy for the team with the best record in the season and a team that hasn't yet lost in the playoffs. Until Westbrook proves himself to be the better players, I'm going with Parker on this one. Edge: Spurs.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Danny Green.
Thabo Sefolosha: 19.6 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.3 TPG, 40% FG, 38% 3FG, 100% FT, 4.0 FGA, 2.1 3PA, 0.2 FTA.
Danny Green: 23.8 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.56 SPG, 0.89 BPG, 1.3 TPG, 46% FG, 40% 3FG, 70% FT, 7.3 FGA, 4.4 3PA, 1.1 FTA.

Both the Spurs and Thunder have subpar starters at shooting guard that are supplemented by the two best sixth men who both play Shooting Guard! Obviously Green seems to be the better player by looking at the statistics. He scores and shoots better, as is the case with most Spurs players. Both players spread the floor well, and the majority of their shots come from open 3s as a result of their teams swinging the ball around the perimeter looking for an open man and stretching the defense. Danny Green is one of many players who come together to give the Spurs their great offense. Green doesn't create plays for himself or try and force shots, but he gets his share of the ball. Sefolosha is a product of the Durant-Westbrook oriented offense in OKC. He's also been getting his minutes passed on to James Harden throughout the year and getting his role reduced even more. Its hard to tell how good of a player Thabo would be playing for a team like the Raptors or the Warriors where he would get more minutes and undoubtedly get more shots. Thabo plays solely because of his defensive ability and the team doesn't need to worry about so little offensive production from him when they have Westbrook and Durant on the floor with him. As it is, he gets to be a complementary player to Durant and Westbrook... when Harden isn't on the floor. Green is better... but not by much. Edge: Spurs.


Small Forward: Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard.
Kevin Durant: 40.9 MPG, 26.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 3.1 TPG, 48% FG, 34% 3FG, 85% FT, 18.9 FGA, 5.3 3PA, 7.9 FTA.
Kawhi Leonard: 24.4 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 0.6 APG, 1.44 SPG, 0.9 TPG, 48% FG, 44% 3FG, 83% FT, 6.2 FGA, 2.8 3PA, 1.3 FTA.

Obviously, it isn't even a contest here. Durant is one of the best players in the NBA and the 3-time scoring champion. Leonard is only a rookie, but certainly not a bad one. he's developed nicely into the starting SF for this Spurs team as a versatile player who can defend, shoot from outside, and also get in the post and rebound the ball. He doesn't play too many minutes and shares them with Stephen Jackson. We can look for that to change over next season as Leonard improves and Jackson continues to age (34 years old). I can't imagine Leonard having too much of an effect of Durant in this series defensively. Jackson might be able to stick with him when he's playing and the two of them may be able to come to a sort of tag-team effort to contain Durant. Durant's length may be able to contain Leonard's offense a bit however. Durant isn't a great defensive player, but his height and long arms help him stick to his man and get blocks. You can bet on Durant getting his 25-30 points each game this series, and that's crucial if the Thunder want to win this series. Edge: Thunder.


Power Forward: Serge Ibaka vs. Tim Duncan.
Serge Ibaka: 27.6 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 3.7 BPG, 0.4 TPG, 53% FG, 25% 3FG, 75% FT, 8.1 FGA, 0.4 3PA, 0.8 FTA.
Tim Duncan: 32.3 MPG, 17.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, 0.89 SPG, 1.78 BPG, 1.3 TPG, 52% FG, 77% FT, 14.2 FGA, 3.3 FTA.

This is a matchup I'm excited to watch. The young rising star with stellar defense in Serge Ibaka and the old "seen it all" intelligent veteran in Tim Duncan. Ibaka has secured himself as the starting Power Forward on this Thunder team, leads the NBA in blocks, and was selected for the all-defensive team. He's improved a lot this season, and looks ready to make another jump next season. The most important thing he can do is improve his offensive game and develop some low-post moves. If he can provide OKC with a reliable scorer in the post, this team will be a lot better than they already are. Tim Duncan, on the other hand, is 14 years older than Ibaka and is looking to win his fifth championship. He is undoubtedly near the end of his career and has morphed into the ultimate leader for this team. He's still pumping out double-doubles like a machine and raising his game when his team needs him to. The big question is how long he will be able to keep it up. He's somehow averaging 32 minutes a game playing for the highest scoring team in the league and running up and down the floor the whole game. It seems logical that at some point, probably soon, his body is going to simply break down from the years of playing at such a high level. Their defensive effect on each other should be interesting. Duncan has years of experience on his side that should help him against the younger and more athletic Ibaka. Serge should be able to get a few blocks on Duncan each game and fairly limit him. Duncan seems too experienced to let Ibaka get the better of him and his post moves have had years to develop which will let him get his points. Duncan's defense in the post will likely limit Ibaka somewhat, but his energy and athleticism should still get him 8-10 points a game. Its possible that as soon as next year this matchup could be a wash depending on how quickly Ibaka develops his game, but right now Duncan's effect on this Spurs team and his experience are too much to ignore. He's still playing at an all-star level and is one of the best big men in the league. Edge: Spurs


Center: Kendrick Perkins vs. Boris Diaw.
Kendrick Perkins: 26.3 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 TPG, 39% FG, 91% FT, 3.8 FGA, 1.1 FTA.
Boris Diaw: 24.7 MPG, 6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, 54% FG, 46% 3FG, 71% FT, 5.1 FGA, 1.2 3PA, 0.8 FTA.

Both Perkins and Diaw play complimentary roles to their teammates. Perkins plays solid defense and really only gets his points off tip-ins and fouls. Diaw, at 6'8", is an undersized center who really plays Power Forward so Duncan can control the paint. Diaw can rebound, play down low, and also shoot from outside to spread the floor. Perkins hasn't been shooting well in the playoffs, but playing against Diaw could help him pick up a bit. Playing at Center, its not often that he gets to play against someone shorter than him. Still, both centers will be playing next to taller and better power forwards so this position won't be too important other than for defensive purposes. That being said, Perkins has proved his defensive experience in the past and his defense should be enough to slow down Diaw and limit his contribution to the Spurs' offense. Edge: Thunder


Sixth Man: James Harden vs. Manu Ginobili.
James Harden: 30.4 MPG, 17.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.3 TPG, 42% FG, 38% 3FG, 90% FT, 11.0 FGA, 4.2 3PA, 7.1 FTA.
Manu Ginobili: 27.1 MPG, 12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.78 SPG, 2.4 TPG, 44% FG, 30% 3FG, 81% FT, 9.9 FGA, 4.4 3PA, 3.6 FTA.

Both James Harden and Manu Ginobili come off the bench and play Shooting Guard but play the minutes of a starter. Harden just won Sixth man of the year with Manu being the only real competitor for the award. Harden has developed into the number three option for the Thunder and handles the ball when Westbrook is on the bench. He's improved drastically over the season and is looking like a future all-star at only 22 years old. He's averaging career highs in points and minutes and continues to produce more as his minutes increase. Manu, on the other hand, has slipped a bit in his production but still remains a threat off the bench. Part of Manu's decreased production is the fact that he's shooting less than 10 FGA per game along with the fewest minutes since his rookie season in 2002. This is most likely a combination of Manu's increasing age and injury problems along with the depth of the team. With Danny Green and Stephen Jackson also at the SG position, Manu doesn't need to play as many minutes as he used to. Still, he's playing nearly 30 minutes a game and playing more minutes than the starting 2-guard (Danny Green). Harden's production is a lot more important to his team than Ginobili's is the the Spurs' and unless harden severely outplays Ginobili this series, Manu still remains the ultimate sixth man. Harden's game is great and I love his style, but he's still pretty unproven and we don't know if he has the ability to come through in important games. This series will give us a great chance to find out. As for Ginobili, he's proved he can play under pressure in big games and raise his game when he really needs to but with Duncan and Parker on his team, those occasions are pretty rare. Still, I like Manu and trust his experience. Edge: Spurs


So the Thunder only have an advantage at two positions, center and small forward, but they have big advantages there. Three matchups are close in favor of the Spurs (PG, SG, and Sixth man), with only the Power Forward position being clearly in favor of the Spurs. This series will depend a lot on how those close matchups shake out. All of those matchups could easily flip in favor of the Thunder. As much as we can try and figure this out, these matchups won't be clear until the games actually start.

One of the most fascinating parts of this series is the legacies that are at stake with a trip to the Finals at stake. We've got players on each team who stand to gain a lot historically if they can win the Finals. For the Spurs, Tim Duncan is looking to win a fifth title in what could be his last shot at a title. At the start of the year, a lot of people didn't believe that the Spurs could match what they did last season and also doubted their ability to play in the postseason after losing the the Grizzlies in the first round. Instead, they finished with the best record of the regular season despite regularly sitting Duncan and Ginobili out of games to rest them and keep them from wearing down over the season. With the playoffs looming and people starting to talk about a reenactment of last year's playoffs, the Spurs won their last 10 games of the playoffs and swept the first two rounds of the playoffs. They haven't just been winning games, but they've been tearing through opponents and winning games by 15+ points. If the Spurs had really gone all out during the regular season, they probably could've finished with the best record of all time. No joke. If you're doubting Duncan's resume, lets look at what he's done: He's played for 14 seasons. In the 1997-98 season he won rookie of the year, made all-NBA team, all-defensive team, and made the all-star team. He's made 13 all-star teams, 13 all-NBA teams (9 first teams), 13 all-defensive teams (8 first teams), won two consecutive MVP trophies in 2002 and 2003, won championships in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007, won Finals MVP in 1999, 2003, and 2005, and consistently been a team leader for his whole career. From 1999 to 2008, he averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, peaking in 2003 when he averaged 27.6 points and 15.4 rebounds and decimated everyone on his way to the third championship of his career. Winning another ring, at 36 years old no less, would put him on another level historically.
On the topic of legacies, Kevin Durant also stands to gain a lot if the Thunder won the championship. Winning it would vault him ahead of Lebron (who is supposed to be better than him) in ring numbers, which is one of the most important numbers for a player's legacy. If Durant won his first title, I wouldn't say it would all be good news however. Here's an idea I've had for awhile now: Lebron and Wade are two of the best players in the league and work great together. They wanted to play together and while the chemistry isn't perfect, they're mature enough and far enough into their careers that they can make it work. Durant and Westbrook, however, aren't like that. They're both young, rich, and talented and playing for the same team. Its always been Durant team and he's been the leader of this team. However this season and in the playoffs, Westbrook has been getting the captain's share of the shots and taking more than Durant. I think there's a possibility that winning a championship could raise tensions between these two. It seems like Westbrook would love to be the guy who gets all the big shots and makes the decisions if he had the chance. I've always questioned his ability to put his ego in check for the sake of the team and while they're playing great, I can't help but think the Thunder could actually be better with someone more willing to pass. Westbrook has always seemed a bit unstable to me, and if victory and success go to his head, he may upset the balance of this Thunder team. That being said, I think there is a possibility that Durant and Westbrook could turn out like Shaq and Kobe. Two superstars fighting for the biggest share of the spotlight and trying to outdo each other on and off the court. Obviously Durant is a more likable guy like Kobe, and I don't think Durant would instigate something like that. Westbrook's position is a lot like Kobe's was though. He stepped onto a team with a young superstar that was already there, a lot of upside for the team and lots of potential. Both players were improving dramatically  but Shaq (and Durant) was the proven superstar and got the most shots and most points. Once the Lakers started winning, Kobe decided being the #2 guy wasn't enough. He and Shaq fought for 2-3 years while still winning championships before Kobe finally won and Shaq was traded. I'm not saying this is what's going to happen... but seems perfectly realistic to me. Of course, this probably won't happen unless the Thunder win the championship and continue this level of play for another 2-3 years. Remember, Westbrook wasn't the happiest guy around before the Thunder gave him a nice fat contract this season. If the Thunder happen to win the championship this year, pay very close attention to Westbrook next season.

Even though the Thunder have two great players in Durant and Westbrook as well as future all-stars in Ibaka and Harden, they don't have the experience or depth to really contend with the Spurs. San Antonio has been built by fundamentals by one of the greatest coaches of all time and are one of the best teams ever. These guys know each other, aren't selfish, and don't get intimidated. The Thunder know what its like to lose in the Western Conference Finals and would love to not see history repeat itself. However, I just don't think they're enough of a team yet to work out their ballhandling problems and don't have enough offensive weapons to contend with the Spurs. I'm excited for a Spurs-Heat final, and that's what I expect to see after the Conference Finals finish.

Prediction: Spurs in 5












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