I am writing this on the night before the first games of the NBA playoffs start. Unlike the past 3 years, I will not spend the first round obsessively watching my Blazers, hoping they win, and then having my hopes and dreams crushed. Instead, I sit here at my computer wondering who to root for, and who to hate, during the coming weeks. This year's playoffs are somewhat of a mystery, starting two days after the end of a 66 game season packed into 17 weeks. That's an average of about 4 games a week. Back-to-back games were common, and every team played at least 1 back-to-back-to-back thanks to the horrendous lockout. Throughout the season we continued to criticize the Miami Heat while Lebron James had probably his greatest season yet averaging 27.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 6.2 AGP, and 2.0 SPG while shooting 53% from the field, Jeremy Lin became an overnight sensation playing for the Knicks, the Chicago Bulls excelled even with Derrick Rose missing over a third of the season, The San Antonio Spurs won at least 50 games for the 13th straight year (an NBA record), Kobe Bryant played like Kobe Bryant (23.0 FGA per game, 27.9 PPG, and 12 straight seasons averaging at least 25.0 PPG), Kevin Durant won his third straight scoring title by beating out Kobe by 38 points, the Indiana Pacers had their first over .500 season since the "Malice In The Palace" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu5bprqdUgY) finishing 42-24 and getting the 3rd seed in the East, The Boston Celtics held back time yet another year and finished with the 5th seed in the East, the New Jersey Nets ending a 35 year run in New Jersey (And Brooklyn finally getting a professional sports team!) and Brandon Roy shockingly retired on the eve of training camp, taking with him the hopes and dreams of what could have been for the Blazers franchise (Watch this for one more Roy flashback: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB-FGLPT-fo), and months of tanking for what could be one of the deepest drafts in the past few years. With all that being said, below are my round 1 predictions along with, I hope, unbiased analysis.
Eastern Conference:
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers:
Key factors: 1. Derrick Rose's health. Above all else, for Chicago to make a deep run and eventually challenge the Heat for the conference title, Rose will have to be at full health and play like last season (Saturday edit: Hey... look at that! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo1UlzDeY-o&feature=g-logo). The rest of the team has proven that they can win without Rose, but I don't think they've got what it takes to win four playoff rounds without him. With him? They have a good chance. Look for this to be the biggest factor (Saturday edit: To be fair, Thibs had no reason to be playing Rose with one minute left when Chicago was up by 20. This should never have happened.).
2. Philly's "team effort". The 76ers have 7 players averaging at least 9 PPG and nobody with more than 15 (Lou Williams leads the team with 14.9 PPG and a 20.2 PER despite never starting a game this season). They have 11 guys who played at least 37 games and averaged over 15 MPG. As a team, they average the fewest PPG of any playoff team (93.6) but have the 3rd best PPG for opponents (89.4). Chicago, meanwhile boasts the best PPG for opponents with 88.2. The big question is if Philadelphia can raise their offense if their defense can't contain the Bulls. If not, then Chicago's excellent defense should carry them to the second round.
3. Chicago's big men. With Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, Omar Asik, and Taj Gibson (along with Luol Deng's length) anchoring Chicago's frontcourt, outplaying Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes, and Thaddeus Young is a reasonable task. With Noah averaging 9.8 rebounds and 3.8 offensive rebounds, and all of Ch
icago's big men having at least some ability to score, they could provide enough of an inside advantage to tip the scales even more in Chicago's favor.
4. Defense. Both teams play excellent defense and, as mentioned before, are both in the top 3 in points allowed per game. Both teams have excellent perimeter defenders in Andre Iguodola (Who has become an even better all-around player this year) and Luol Deng. Both players can shoot well, create their own shot, pass, rebound, and defend multiple positions. Chicago has a more potent offense though. Don't look for any scores much past the triple digit mark.
Overall, I don't think Philadelphia's balanced attack will be enough to steal more than 1 (possibly 2) games from Chicago. Defense will prevail throughout the series, but look for Chicago to win this without much trouble. (Even with Rose out)!
Prediction: Chicago in 5
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks:
Key factors: 1. Scoring threats. Both Miami and New York are headlined by players who can score. Wade and James for the Heat and Carmelo (and possibly Amare?) for the Knicks. Lebron and Wade are both known for their ability to score. No doubt about that. Sure, we talk about Lebron's crunch time ability and whether they can mesh together to really dominate, but if there's ever a time to see Miami at their full strength, it will be the next few weeks. Carmelo Anthony, on the other hand, has been an enigma. He played bad throughout January and February, averaging under 20 PPG, and missed about two weeks of games during which Jeremy Lin exploded onto the scene and kept New York alive. He then turned it on in April, averaging 30 PPG during the last month of the season and showing everyone that he was still a great scorer. He had two games in April with 40+ points and 5 games with 35+ points highlighted by a 43 point game against Chicago in which he hit a number of clutch shots (http://youtu.be/kjXSpFCFdXY). Look for some incredible shots during this series.
2. Lebron-Carmelo. I'm looking at this Small Forward matchup as the key to the series. Remember, Carmelo was drafted the same year as Lebron and is also an elite scorer. I wouldn't be surprised if Melo looked to show his stuff to the world and place himself on the same level as Lebron and Wade. On the other side of this matchup however, is Lebron's dominance on both ends of the floor. I'm not confident in Carmelo's ability to limit Lebron, while Lebron's defense is one of the best. If Carmelo had his way, he and Lebron would have a 48 minute shootout. I predict Carmelo exploding for 40+ in at least one game (although probably not more than one) and stealing a game from the Heat. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Lebron's defense holds Carmelo to at least one stinker of a game.
3. 3-point shooting. New York publicly said they were tanking the last few games of the season so they could play Miami instead of Chicago. New York's 3-point shooters in JR Smith, Carmelo, and Steve Novak could be problems for Miami. I also predict New York has a game where the make at least a dozen 3s and overwhelm Miami. The Heat don't have anyone on that level of shooting, although we know Lebron can make them when it counts. If Miami can defend the 3, and Spoelstra will make a point of this, and contain Carmelo, they shouldn't lose more than one game.
4. Amare-Bosh. Both players were highly respected as of a couple seasons ago, and both have dropped in production since joining teams with other superstars. Amare played well with Carmelo their first season, but when Chandler came and provided a constant man in the paint, it decreased Amare's production significantly. This season Amare averaged 17.6 PPG, the first time since his rookie season he averaged under 20 PPG (We're not counting the 2005-06 season when he played only 3 games due to microfracture surgery on his knee), and shot only 48% with 7.9 RPG. Still, for a team's #2 guy, 17.6 and 7.9 isn't bad. If Amare can keep that production or close to it, that can relieve some of the scoring pressure on Carmelo. As for Bosh, he has been labeled as a disappointment and scapegoat since signing with Miami. The season before he signed with Miami, Bosh averaged 24 PPG, 10.9 RPG and was expected to rise even more and become on of the NBA's best power forwards. Since signing with the Heat, he has averaged 18 PPG and 8 RPG. Is that really bad? 18 PPG and being the 3rd scorer on your team? That's 3 PPG more than anyone on the 76ers. Sure his shooting isn't what it used to be (down 52% to 48%) but when you have Lebron and Wade combining for 49.2 points on 36 shots and 51%, can't you afford for your 3rd guy to play a little below that standard? If the Heat have a problem, its that none of their bench players have stepped up to play a solid supporting role. If Miami had solid bench players or centers, they could make a run at that 72-10 record set by Jordan's Bulls. All that being said, the Power Forward position is something New York absolutely must dominate in order to stand up to Miami.
After all that is said, I don't think New York can take this longer than 6 games. Maybe Carmelo can win a game. Maybe New York can light up from downtown and steal one. Carmelo will try his best, and we will get to see if he can stand up to the NBA's best. This series will be exciting, but it won't last long. Lebron knows his legacy is at stake. If he can't get it this year, he affirms all the doubts about his game. He knows this. If there is ever a time for him to play the best basketball of his life, its over the next month.
Prediction: Miami in 5.
(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Orlando Magic:
Key factors: 1. Dwight's absence. Obviously, this affected a series about as much as any one person could have. With a healthy Dwight? I think Orlando could've pulled it off. Without him? I have no idea. Its unclear to me who will step up and take the leadership role with Dwight out. Will it be Ryan Anderson? Jameer Nelson? Jason Richardson? It looks to me like Anderson is poised to take that role. Averaging 16.1 PPG and 7.7 RPG even with Dwight dominating the paint, Anderson's ability to play inside and get rebounds and also shoot the 3 (he makes almost 3 a game and shoots 39% from downtown). The problem with Orlando is that they love the 3-ball. About 1 in every 3 shots is from downtown and as a team they make 37%. Dwight's 15 RPG and 57% shooting gave them the leisure to do this. Without that constant scoring threat, how well will this team play? If the 3 doesn't fall, how will they react?
2. Streaky shooting. Both Orlando and Indiana are in the bottom third of the league in FG% (.441 for Orlando and .438 for Indiana). With Dwight out, Orlando's shooting probably won't even stay that high. Indiana's top scorer (Danny Granger at 18.7 PPG) boasts 41% shooting. Indiana only allows opponents to shoot 43% however, and Orlando doesn't seem likely to outperform that. However, like with New York, Orlando always has that chance that their 3s will fall (like in this game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atToIUpqaNY). If that happens, and it will, Orlando could extend this series. Don't expect any high scoring games though, as a combination of tough defense and bad shooting will probably be common in this series.
3. Glen Davis. That's right! Big Baby Davis could be the biggest deciding factor in this series. With Dwight out for however long Orlando lasts in the playoffs, that thrusts Glen into the spotlight as Howard's replacement at center. Davis seems able to bang down low with the skinny Hibbert, and if he can stay healthy and focused he should be able to use his size to abuse Hibbert in the post. Davis has shown glimpses that he can play very well if given the minutes and if he can become Orlando's main rebounder/go-to guy in the post, Dwight's absence might not hurt as much. If Davis can't keep up or gets hurt, it is likely that Hibbert and David West will polish off Orlando fairly quickly. Davis' performance will likely reflect how Orlando as a whole plays. Davis has averaged 9.3 points and 5.4 rebounds in 23 minutes this season for Orlando. Dwight's absence should, at most, mean an extra 10-12 minutes of action for Davis if he shows he deserves the minutes. that could push him up at somewhere around a 13-8 average. Of course, his 42% for this season isn't promising. If he can find a way to shoot closer to 50% like Orlando needs, Davis could potentially get 15+ PPG.
4. Orlando's chemistry. With all the Dwight talk during the season and now talk about him wanting their coach gone, you have to wonder what the rest of the team is thinking. Do they trust Van Gundy? Do they trust each other? Is it possible they're glad Dwight isn't playing? Its possible (not probable... but slightly possible) that as good as Dwight is, his griping and complaining and love of the spotlight could've held his team back. The Magic as a team have the potential to play perfectly fine without their superstar center. Things like this can never be predicted in advance. Orlando will either come together as a team and beat the Pacers, or fizzle out and die without their main rebounder and scorer.
I'm shaky on making a prediction for this series. Either team could win and it depends on many factors. With everything said though, Indiana has shown who they are and what they can do. Orlando will have to figure out how to step up their game with their star just recently injured. I'm taking the safe road on this one, but don't take my word for it. Out of all the matchups in the first round, this one is the most equal and easiest to swing in either direction.
Prediction: Indiana in 7
(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Boston Celtics:
Key factors: 1. Boston's age/health. This one is pretty obvious. Boston's big 3 aren't who they used to be. That's not to say they aren't good anymore though. Kevin Garnett has averaged 15.8 points and 8.2 rebounds at 35 years old (36 in May) while Pierce averages 19.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Both Pierce and Garnett played 60+ games this season, so their health seems more certain than it did the last couple years. Ray Allen's health is concerning however. Missing close to a third of the season and also being reverted to a bench role near the end of the season, can Allen provide a legitimate scoring threat if Pierce or Garnett can't get their shots to fall? If these Celtics can stay healthy and energetic, they should be able to beat the Hawks.
2. Boston's defense. Boston is nearly at the bottom of the league in PPG with 91.8 and average the fewest rebounds of any team in the league with 38.8, but make up for it by allowing only 89.1 PPG. Boston's defense has kept them above a .500 record and led them to the 5th seed in the playoffs thanks to a late season surge. Boston played the last few games with the apparent belief that homecourt advantage wasn't important, basically giving away the 4 seed to Atlanta. Atlanta's offense is anchored by Joe Johnson and Josh Smith who each average 18.8 PPG but always have that possibility of going for 30 any given night. The Josh Smith-Kevin Garnett matchup will be fun to watch. If KG can provide the intense defense that helped make him so good and slow down Smith, Boston's chances of winning this series should be pretty good.
3. Rajon Rondo. The man running Boston's offense and their youngest star, Rondo leads the nba in assists but can't hit a 15-foot shot. His ability to slash into the lane and get layups and draw the defense in is very good, and helps him get his assists. But his FT% is just as bad at 60%. Despite this, his ability ability to get rebounds (great for a PG) and get crazy stat lines (17 rebounds, 18 points, and 20 assists against New York last month) makes him a threat. He only scored 20+ points 8 times this season but had a streak of 23 straight games with 10+ assists (taking away the 3 games he didn't play at the end of the season, that streak is at 25 and still going). My best comparison for Rondo is Jason Kidd. A great passer and team player... as long as you don't need him to score consistently. If Pierce, Garnett, and the rest of Boston's assortment of role players can shoulder the scoring load, Rondo can get them their shots.
4. The Center position. Both teams are pretty thin at the 5 spot, with the Celtics starting KG there lately and Pachulia and Horford both out for Atlanta, the Hawks will rely on Jason Collins and Ivan Johnson at center. How does a Stiemsma-Collins matchup sound? Because we're going to see that a lot unless Garnett decides to play 40+ minutes a night. Stiemsma averaged 18 MPG in April with stats of 4.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game along with solid shooting percentages. We don't know how long Pachulia is out, but if he can come back soon, look for him (assuming he comes back on good health) to make his presence known in the paint. If Horford and Pachulia don't come back, or can't play effectively, I can see Garnett and Bass being pretty effective in the post.
All that being said, here's what I think could push this in Boston's favor: Pierce and Garnett know that they're old and retirement can't be far away. Boston isn't looking to rebuild and they know they won't get too much help before their effectiveness drops even more. These two (and Allen to a lesser extent) will play their hearts out with the knowledge that this could be their last year in the playoffs. If they can win this round, a throwdown with Miami could bring out everything left in these two. Atlanta may be the better team, but I think Pierce and Garnett know their days are numbered... and that could be the difference. One more good run could take their legacies even further into the history books.
Prediction: Boston in 7.
Western Conference:
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Utah Jazz:
Key factors: 1. Last year's playoffs. Last year, San Antonio also had the 1 seed... and was shocked by the surging Memphis Grizzlies. Maybe that makes them look weak, and maybe people are thinking that Utah could do the same. They won't. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and the rest of the veterans on the Spurs will not let this happen again. They've added even more depth to their lineup with the additions of Stephen Jackson and Richard Jefferson in midseason trades and rookie Kawhi Leonard. Duncan continues to excel at 36 years old (15.4 points, 9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 2.9 assists, solid defense and excellent leadership in 28.2 minutes every night), and Tony Parker stepped up for a career season of 18.3 points and 7.7 assists per game on 48% shooting. Look for Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili (SA's "big 3") to carry this team with focus and intensity throughout the playoffs.
2. Utah's bigs. The Jazz have three big men who can score and rebound in Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors. Jefferson and Millsap anchor Utah's offense and both had cases to make the all-star team this year. Favors could most likely match their stats if given the minutes (8.8 points and 6.5 rebounds in 21 minutes), and look for them to try and assert themselves in the paint against Duncan and Blair. If they can do that, they should be able to steal a game or two from the Spurs.
3. San Antonio's balanced attack. San Antonio averages 103.7 PPG (2nd in the NBA) and has nobody averaging more than 18 PPG. They have 10 players averaging 9+ PPG though, and have a solid bench. They can make the 3 (5 players who make at least 1 a game and average at least 40% from downtown), beat you inside, and outrun you. They have a very balanced offense, and always have someone who can make a basket. To me, the Spurs are one of the most likely teams to win it all this year.
4. Scoring. San Antonio and Utah are both in the top 5 in PPG, so we should see a good number of final scores in triple digits. Utah averages 46% from the field with the Spurs shooting 48% overall and 40% from downtown. Both teams have plenty of players who can step up to have a big game, and the spotlight will probably be passed around a lot between individuals during this series. There could be multiple close games, but don't expect another upset.
While Utah held on to get the last seed in the West, it won't get them anything nice. San Antonio is simply too good and this looks like the most lopsided matchup in round 1. You can expect some good games, but not anything in Utah's favor. At most, the Jazz might steal one game if the Spurs have an off-day.
Prediction: San Antonio in 4
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks:
Key factors: 1. Coexistence. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are probably the second best combo in the league behind James and Wade. Westbrook got his new contract and more money and has played alongside Durant seemingly well. The balance between them has always seemed a little shaky though. They both shoot a lot, they both enjoy the spotlight, but Durant is #1 and gets all the last shots. The team turns to Durant at the end of games... and he delivers a lot. Playoffs are always a different story. What could combust this team more than anything else is Westbrook trying to play as good as Durant against the rest of the nba's stars. Durant scores 28.0 PPG (To go with his 3rd consecutive scoring title) on 19.7 FGA and 50% shooting. Westbrook follows with 23.6 points on 19.3 FGA and 46% shooting. They combine for half of the Thunder's points and do it while shooting the ball fairly well. they both do other things fairly well: Durant averages 8 RPG and Westbrook gets nearly 6 APG. If Westbrook doesn't try and outplay Durant, and the balance stays how it has been, then the Thunder should keep up their play from the regular season. This point will get even more important as the playoffs roll on and the pressure rises.
2. Dallas' title defense. Since Michael Jordan's last championship, the Los Angeles Lakers are the only team to win back-to-back titles (They've won 5 of the past 11). The Mavericks don't seem likely to do the same. After Dirk rose to legendary levels of play last playoffs and ruined the Heat's title run, everybody expected him to continue that in the regular season. Interesting note on this: Dirk has made the playoffs every year with the Mavericks since the new century. This is his 12th straight year in the playoffs. He has only averaged fewer than 23 PPG in one postseason, and has cracked 25+ 9 times, including 4 postseasons of 26+ carrying into this season. He averaged the fewest rebounds of his postseason career however (8.2), but that's when happens to a 7-footer when their trademark shot is taken 10-20 feet from the basket. Also, when was the last time an nba player had a specific move raised to such levels as Dirk's turnaround fadeaway? Dirk gave us one of the greatest playoff performances in recent memory. This year? Dallas finished the season 36-30 in the 7th seed. Not quite the same as last season. A big reason is their loss of big man Tyson Chandler to New York. Chandler anchored the defense in the Finals and played a crucial role throughout the playoffs. Dallas isn't playing like a team that can defend their title, but don't be surprised when Dallas turns up to intensity and comes close to what they were last playoffs. They won't be pushovers, and if Dirk can play well the first couple games and get his groove settled before playing in Dallas, these Mavs should be able to extend it to 6 or 7 games.
3. Ibaka/Perkins. The main post players for the Thunder, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are excellent defenders in the paint who can also rebound, but aren't legitimate scoring threats (they combine for 16 PPG). Ibaka had 5+ blocks in 22 games and 10+ blocks three times (all in January). His and Perkins' defense has the potential to slow Dirk and the center combo of Brendon Haywood and Ian Mahinmi. Kendrick Perkins has averaged 5 points and 7 rebounds in 26 minutes this season, with backups Nick Collison and Reggie Jackson providing solid defense and energy off the bench. Ibaka should draw the assignment of guarding Dirk for the majority of the game, which will test his ability to defend outside the post. If Dirk can draw Ibaka out and shoot over him or get past him into the post, it could be a rough few games for the young star (yes, I consider Ibaka to be an up-and-coming star). With the length of Ibaka, Perkins, and Durant (an 89" wingspan), Dallas could have some trouble.
4. Shawn Marion/Vince Carter. Dallas' SF/SG combo are solid players. Neither can play like they used to, but they have adapted to great roles on the Mavericks team. Marion, now 33 years old, averages 10.6 points and 7.5 rebounds in 30.1 minutes. Carter is now 35 years old, averaging 10.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in 25 minutes. He has to opportunity to score close to the 15 point mark, but his 41% shooting holds him back. Marion played great in the playoffs last year, shouldering a good portion of the scoring along with Dirk and Jason Terry. His ability to play defense should have him guarding Durant most of the game. Whether he plays well enough to slow Durant down is another question. Marion's ability to shoot from outside and bang down low with the bigger guys makes him a valuable player for Dallas (Plus, his free-throw shooting never fails to provide comic relief... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REk6uRQAohY&feature=related. Also, looking up Marion's free throw on youtube linked me to this awesome NBA on TNT commerical! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QjamHkqw3w&feature=related).
As good as Dallas was last year, it seems destined for the tables to turn this year. Dallas disposed of the Thunder in 5 games in last year's Western Conference Finals, and it seems likely that OKC will return the favor. Unless Dirk can play just as well as last year and his supporting cast can come up big, this series shouldn't last long. This year's Thunder team has another year of experience and improved talent. That combined with their youth should ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavericks.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in 5
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets:
Key factors: 1. Frontcourt. Denver joins Indiana, Philadelphia, and San Antonio as a team that has a balanced offensive attack that includes multiple leaders and deep benches. Denver boasts a frontcourt of Al Harrington, JaVale McGee, and the up-and-coming Kenneth Faried. The Lakers will counter with Andrew Bynum, and Pau Gasol. Both teams feature rising stars at the center position (Andrew Bynum and Kenneth Faried) and legitimate power forwards. Denver is 8th in rebounding with 43.1 per game and the Lakers are 2nd with 46.2. Denver leads the NBA in APG with 24.0 and PPG with 104.1. The Lakers are averaging fewer than 100 PPG for the first time since the 2005-06 season. Denver's scoring is led by their 48% shooting (2nd in the NBA) and 33% from downtown. Bynum, Gasol, and Bryant score about two-thirds of the Lakers points and many of those come from the paint. The battle for rebounds and post scoring should be a big factor in how this series plays out. Bynum has finally established himself as an elite player in the NBA and probably the #2 center behind Dwight Howard. Wait another couple years, and if he can stay healthy he may surpass Howard. Lets look at Bynum's playoff numbers from 2009 to now:
2009: 17.4 minutes, 6.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 46% shooting.
2010: 24.4 minutes, 8.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 53% shooting. (Bynum played every game of the 2010 playoffs with a torn meniscus and strained achilles tendon. He would've been way better here if he were healthy)
2011: 32.0 minutes, 14.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 55% shooting.
Realistically, the upward trends combined with his performance this season could lead to something along these lines: 2012: 37 minutes, 19 points, 12 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 56% shooting. How does that sounds for your 2nd or 3rd best player (depending on how Gasol plays)? This would be the first time since 2002 that the Lakers would have a dominate center to play with Kobe.
2. Kobe Bryant. Wanna know something about Kobe? Despite nearly leading the league in scoring, this has been his worst shooting season since 1997-98. He countered that by taking 23 FGA per game, second only to his 2005-06 season when he took 27.3 shots a game (to be fair here... the other Lakers starters this season were Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm, and Smush Parker). His 43% shooting and 30% from 3 could be a result of the condensed schedule, and this is most likely the case. Kobe is 33 years old and plays nearly 40 minutes a night. Maybe his age and slowing down is part of it. He doesn't really get open shots, and lives off pivot moves since he can't beat guys off the dribble like he used to. Luckily for Kobe, he will be guarded by a combination of Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, and Andre Miller. Kobe will most likely score close to 30+ every game this series. The big factor will be how effectively he does it. If he can shoot around or close to 50%, the Lakers should be safe. If he shoots worse than 45%, Kobe needs to let Bynum, Gasol, or even Sessions help him with the scoring. Everybody knows Kobe can score. He finally has some elite teammates and he needs to adjust his game accordingly. If he does, Kobe, Bynum, and Gasol could all average 20+ PPG each on a combined average of 50% shooting.
3. Denver's point guards. The Nuggets have a very effective point guard duo of the young breakout guard Ty Lawson (Leads the Nuggets in PPG and APG) and the experienced veteran Andre Miller. They each average 6.7 APG (with Miller playing 8 minutes less per game than Lawson) and combine for 26 PPG. Few teams don't have two quality point guards, and that fortune sometimes appears with Miller and Lawson on the floor at the same time. Both can attack the basket fairly well although Miller doesn't have the same range as Lawson, who finished the last 5 games of the season making 15 of 21 3s and shooting at least 50% in 10 of 14 games in April and averaging 20 PPG for the last month of the season. Miller and Lawson will matchup against Ramon Sessions, who the Lakers acquired in a midseason trade, and backup Steve Blake. Sessions has fit in nicely with the Lakers, providing Kobe with a decent backcourt teammate who can attack the paint, pass the ball well, and shoot from long range if he needs to. Sessions has averaged 12.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.9 rebounds on 49% shooting in 30.5 minutes. We probably won't see Lawson and Miller on the court together much, but Miller should be able to take advantage of playing against Blake for most of his time on the court.
4. Pace. We've already looked at the fact that this Lakers team is quite a bit slower than the Lakers teams the past few seasons. That being said, being matched up against the highest scoring team in the league is not the best thing for them. Denver will try and outrun the Lakers, and if they can then look for some high scoring blowouts. Lucky for the Lakers, their defense has made up for their slower pace. This is probably the biggest factor in the series. The effectiveness with which the Lakers defend the Nuggets will decide how this series turns out. The Lakers won't be able to hold the Nuggets down every game, but they'll do it for four games. The Lakers are tried and tested in the playoffs and we know they can play with anyone. It doesn't help that Metta World Peace got himself kicked out for the first round and force the Lakers to trust a recovering Matt Barnes and a less-than-efficient backup in Devin Ebanks... He may have changed his name, but the Ron Artest we all know never really left. We won't dwell on this though... except for the jokes about there being a lack of world peace. I simply couldn't help it.
As fast and good as this Nuggets team may look, the Lakers simply have too much experience, and they have Kobe. Look for them to move on with determination and focus as Kobe looks to get his 6th ring before its too late.
Prediction: Lakers in 5
(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers:
Key Factors: 1. Blake Griffin. In case you aren't familiar with Griffin, here's a quick summary: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w_Vy0lDk_A, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwx9HiM4Aw0, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnXHiSQ-rGk, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh2ZT1aPBoE... and then this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10qIOjwBCUk. That's Griffin in a nutshell. Sure, he's developed a spin move in the post and can rebound, but he's still got a loooooong way to go. He has good building blocks for his future. We know he can jump, he's starting to develop post moves, and he can rebound (4th in the nba with 10.9 per game). He's getting his first crack at the playoffs playing alongside Chris Paul who's probably the best point guard in the league. Unfortunately for the Clippers, their biggest star is a highlight reel who lives in the post off tip shots and dunks. That's acceptable in the regular season, but in the playoffs? Everything turns up a notch, and I'm not sure Griffin has another notch. Marc Gasol and a hopefully healthy Zach Randolph in this year's playoffs will most likely teach Blake a few lessons on being an elite post player.
2. Zach Randolph. Last year's Grizzlies burst onto the scene by shocking a top seeded Spurs team that dominated the regular season. Zach Randolph averaged 22 points, 11 rebounds, and great defense while being accompanied by fellow big man Marc Gasol who chipped in 15 points, 12 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, and 51% shooting and eventually sparked the "which Gasol would you rather have?" conversation. Randolph got hurt in the 4th game of this season, came back in mid-February, and showed flashes of his former self between crappy games and being given limited minutes, seemingly to have him ready and energetic to dominate in the playoffs again. He'll be guarding Blake Griffin, and if he isn't back to full strength, his defense may not be enough to slow down Griffin enough. If he isn't, he'll be replaced by Marreese Speights who averaged 8.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 45% shooting in 22 minutes as Randolph's replacement starter during the regular season. Speights may be an acceptable substitute for the regular season, but come playoff time and do-or-die games, The Grizzlies are going to want Randolph on the court instead of Speights. Also, these Grizzlies ended the season on a 14-3 winning streak. They look to be hot going into the playoffs.
3. Playoff experience. The effect of playoff experience on players widely differs by opinions, and it can be argued in many ways. Experience can't hurt though. Especially the pain of losing a playoff series. A few players on the Grizzlies have it, most notably their leaders: Randolph (who also made it to the postseason with the Blazers back in 2003), Gasol, and Rudy Gay all from last season. The Clippers? Other than Chris Paul (With New Orleans) and Mo Williams (With Lebron's Cavs), no major players for the Clippers have ever been in the playoffs (Billups has the most experience, but his injury robbed the Clippers of some valuable wisdom. Chris Paul showed his ability to rise to the occasion in the playoffs against the Lakers last year where he averaged 22 points, 11.5 assists, 6.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 55% from the field, 47% from downtown, and 41.5 minutes for the Hornets in 6 games against the Lakers. If Paul can help his team raise their level of play alongside him, he will be able to embrace a bigger leadership role and possibly carry this team far in the next few years as they get more experience. The Grizzlies have memories of last year and the knowledge that they can step it up and win big. That may prove to be the tipping point in this series.
4. Chris Paul. He's always had a knack for playing the leadership role and only scoring in large quantities when his teammates can't get buckets or they need someone to step up in crunch time. He's always been able to raise his game when his team needed him to, and his playoff stats have always jumped from his regular season stats. He single-handedly drew out the series last year against the Lakers to 6 games and now he is the star (along with Griffin) for a rising team in the league. If Paul can get Griffin, Nick Young, Randy Foye, and the other main role players to follow his lead and play all four quarters like it was crunch time, they may be able to stand up to the Grizzlies.
I like this Clippers team a lot, but not as a legitimate contender. I like them for they they could become over the next several years. It may be awhile before the Clippers finally get the experience and talent to face up to teams like Miami, Chicago, and San Antonio, but look for this first taste of the playoffs to fuel Griffin to improve his game. The Grizzlies could go deep into this year's playoffs, or they just might not have the same spark as last year. These first few games against the Clippers will show us who they really are this season.
Prediction: Memphis in 6
Last thoughts: I hope to be writing another "article" or column or whatever you want to call it after the we get 3-4 games into the playoffs. and writing something like this for each playoff round.
No comments:
Post a Comment