Saturday, October 27, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Sacramento Kings

Western Conference #15: Sacramento Kings (22-60)

Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas, Aaron Brooks, Jimmer Fredette.
Shooting Guard: Marcus Thorton, Francisco Garcia.
Small Forward: Tyreke Evans, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw.
Power Forward: Jason Thompson, Thomas Robinson.
Center: Demarcus Cousins, Chuck Hayes.

Sacramento? Seriously?
          The Kings have the building blocks in place, but they're still in rebuild mode. They've got Demarcus Cousins, who will likely contend for an All-Star spot after averaging 18.1 points and 11.0 rebounds in his second season, and Tyreke Evans, who still has shooting issues to overcome before he can become a legitimate threat on the perimeter. Other than that, they've got an incredibly young team with mediocre talent. A bench of Aaron Brooks, Francisco Garcis, John Salmons, Thomas Robinson, and Chuck Hayes isn't going to protect a lead when your starters are resting. There honestly aren't many terrible teams in the West, so I expect the Kings to receive another lottery pick after the coming season. They've got second year point guard Isaiah Thomas, who averaged 11.4 points, 4.1 assists, and 45% shooting in 25.5 minutes his rookie season. He'll likely improve this season, and I think he could average a 12-6 if he gets the minutes. He'll be backed up by Aaron Brooks, who is returning from a season long stint in China. Brooks looked like a promising guy three seasons ago when he averaged 19.8 points, 5.3 assists, 43% FG and 40% 3FG in 35.5 minutes with the Rockets, but then his role got reduced when he couldn't replicate that production and he was traded to Phoenix to back up Steve Nash for the second half of the 2010-11 season and played less than 20 minutes a game. I don't expect Brooks to replicate his stats from 2009, and he will likely take awhile to get readjusted to the NBA before he's able to be a solid if even decent role player for the Kings.
          Marcus Thorton also seems to have potential, but he took a step back last season after averaging just over 21 points in his 27 games with the Kings after being traded from the Hornets. He still averaged 18.7 points last season, but his percentages dropped (43% FG and 34% 3FG) about 2% each. He was locked up last season for a contract worth $31 million over four seasons, so the Kings seem invested in him. The Kings will be relying on him to be one of the leading scorers though, so the question of how effectively he gets his points will be important this season. He'l be their #2 or #3 scoring option behind Evans and possibly behind Cousins depending on how consistent of a threat he is.
          Tyreke Evans is Sacramento's star in the making. At least that's what they'd like him to be. Evans made a greatly promising start his rookie season by averaging 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and shooting 46% in 37 minutes a game. In the two seasons since then, he's been unable to replicate those numbers and has had problems with his jumper. He's a career 25% 3FG shooter and gets most of his points attacking the rim. If he were able to shoot the ball well, he'd likely be close to an all-star level, but after three seasons he still hasn't fixed that issue. Of course, there's still plenty of hope for him. He just turned 23 years old and  should theoretically still have a couple years before reaching his peak. Unfortunately for the Kings, they aren't going to get anywhere when he shoots like that. The Kings have John Salmons and Travis Outlaw backing him up at SF, and that's not something to be happy about. I do feel like Salmons could be a valuable piece, as he averaged 20 PPG only three seasons ago, but he is likely past his peak (32 years old) and also shot a career low 40% last season. As for Outlaw, he's not one to be trusted to score effectively. Outlaw has now gone for four consecutive seasons of shooting under 40% from the field, finishing last season with 34% FG, 26% 3FG and 67% FT which are all career lows for him. The Kings are basically stuck at SF and unless Evans fixes his shooting problems they're going to have production problems at SF. Considering Thorton and Cousins are the other two leading scorers, that may be a problem.
          Jason Thompson and Thomas Robinson will split up the Power Forward minutes depending on how well Robinson plays. Thompson averaged 9.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in 26 minutes a game for the Kings last season while Robinson averaged 17.7 points, 11.9 rebounds (second in the NCAA), and 51% shooting in 31.3 minutes a game for the Kansas Jayhawks as a Junior last season. I expect that Robinson will start out on the bench, but may play his way into the starting spot and around 30 minutes a game. He seems like a great rebounder and physical guy, although his defense will be a big factor in how many minutes he gets. In the long term, I think Robinson will turn out alright for the Kings but he may take awhile to develop. On the positive side, he played three years in college so he may be able to adjust to the NBA quicker than many of his younger fellow rookies.
          At Center, of course, is Demarcus Cousins. He averaged 18.1 points and 10.9 rebounds in his second season in the league and looks poised to break out as one of the best centers in the league. His shooting percentage (44%) is the biggest thing holding him back, and if he can get that up around 50% he could score up to 25 PPG on average. I expect his rebounding to improve as well, and we may be seeing a 23-12 with two blocks a game from Cousins this season, just in time for him to sign a contract extension with the Kings. He's one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, foundational piece for the Kings moving forward. He's a stud center in the making and if he can improve his defense that'll stabilize this Kings team a lot. The Kings allowed 104.4 points last season, three points more than the second worst defensive team in the league. They'll need Robinson and Cousins to provide defensive support since this isn't a team that's made to outscore their opponents. I think Cousins will be able to contend for an All-Star appearance this year, but that'll depend on how much he actually improves. There doesn't seem to be any reason that his growth won't continue, but you never know.
          Sacramento is stuck with guys who can't play defense, but can't outscore their opponents or shoot effectively enough to not worry about defense. They'll need to either sign some veterans who can play defense and score, or tank this season and hope for another good lottery pick. They've got a base in Cousins and possibly Evans, but other than that I don't think anybody on this team has too much promise. Even in watching their top 10 plays from last season (shown above), they don't seem like a team that can do much else other than run fast breaks. Still, the rebuilding is in process and they've already started. Robinson and Cousins do seem like a promising big man combo and they may be able to carry the Kings to a few wins this year. Not many, but still a heck of a lot more than if they weren't here.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Beast of the East

Eastern Conference #1: Miami Heat (60-22)

Point Guard: Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole.
Shooting Guard: Dwayne Wade, Ray Allen, Mike Miller.
Small Forward: Lebron James, Rashard Lewis, James Jones.
Power Forward: Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem.
Center: Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, Dexter Pittman.

          So much has already been said about the Heat, that it already seems a waste of time to talk about them. Because of that, this will be by far the shortest team preview of the series. They went through the Knicks, Pacers, Celtics, and Thunder in the playoffs, which is an accomplishment in itself. Lebron established himself yet again as the best player in the league by finally winning a championship. They've added a two new guys in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but the roster is the same other than that. The biggest roster change is actually the plan to switch Bosh to Center and to play Battier at Power Forward. Battier will provide decent defense, score some threes, and spread the floor for Lebron and Wade to attack the rim better by drawing out the opposing PF at times.
          Unfortunately, it's nearly impossible to predict how Miami's regular season will turn out. James, Wade, and Bosh battled injuries all season long, and at times it seemed like they honestly didn't care about the season. But in the end, none of that matters. They're the champions. I expect something similar to that this year. However the Heat finish, they will not reach their full potential. If James, Wade, and Bosh decided to play 40 minutes a night for 82 games, they could make a run at Chicago's 72-10 record. But they won't. They've just too injury prone, and the problem is that they know they can skim by the regular season, and turn it on for the playoffs at still kick everyone's butts. The biggest threat to Miami isn't the talent of the other teams, but James and Wade's confidence level. It won't show too much in the regular season, but when the playoffs come again, will they come in expecting to win because they won last year? Or will they walk in completely focused on title #2 (and #3 for Wade)? There are so many questions, but the answers can't come from anyone except the Heat themselves.
          All I know is that this is undoubtedly the best team in the East, and probably the whole league. Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka are really good. Howard, Kobe, and Nash look incredibly dangerous. Pierce, KG, and Rondo are still lethal and took the Heat to seven games in the playoffs and have a revamped roster now. The Nuggets, Nets, Spurs, Pacers, and even the Clippers could also claim a shot at the title. But the Heat still have their big three. Bosh may not be spectacular, but his return during the playoffs showed how much the Heat need him and how important of a player he is. For all the bad stuff said about him sometimes, he's still made the All-Star team seven straight years and is one of the best Power Forwards in the league. They have Dwayne Wade, who has developed into a spectacular sidekick for Lebron by averaging 22 points and taking the leading role any time Lebron isn't playing or can't get his shot going. He also led all guards in the league in blocked shots, averaging 1.3 a game along with 1.7 steals. That's three turnovers per game caused by Wade alone. Wade is still one of the best players in the league, but it's just hard to see sometimes with Lebron headlining the team.
          As for Lebron, anything I say will already just be repeating something someone else already said. This guy has been hounded by the media his entire career, and especially since he joined the Heat. His first title is in the books though, and now that he's broken through that wall, he will be aiming for the history books. Can he repeat his Finals victory or even get a three-peat like Kobe and Jordan did? Can he make a legendary run of titles like Russell, Bird, Jordan, or Kobe did? He's already going to be a Hall of Fame legend. The question left is how great. And it may be an answer we can never really answer. The number of titles he collects will be key to that, as well as whether or not he can keep up his statistical and defensive dominance over the next decade. I'm not a Miami fan, and I understand how it is to enjoy hating on Lebron. But we shouldn't try and deny that he's truly a special player, and that's reflected in the attention he draws by both fans and haters alike. When's the last time a player drew attention like this over the course of multiple seasons? Not only that, but he's responded by reaching incredible heights and achieving his first NBA championship. Simply amazing. I'm excited to see how far he can launch himself into the record books and where he will rank among the all-time greats when his career is done, as well as how soon it will be before we crown another young guy "the next Lebron". For all we know, that could start this season. Or next season. Or five or ten years from now.
          Despite so many teams looking amazing this season, the Heat are my favorites to win it all. Doesn't matter how they play during the season. As long as they're healthy in April and May, I'm betting on them repeating as champions. Good luck to anybody who tries to stop them.






Wednesday, October 24, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Boston Celtics

Eastern Conference #2: Boston Celtics (55-27)

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo, Keyon Dooling.
Shooting Guard: Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, Avery Bradley, Leandro Barbosa.
Small Forward: Paul Pierce, Jeff Green, Kris Joseph.
Power Forward: Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox.
Center: Kevin Garnett, Jared Sullinger, Jason Collins.

          At the end of last season, the Celtics looked done. They'd lost a bitter seven game series against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, nearly toppling the heavy favorites in the East after beating both the Hawks and Sixers in seven and six games.. Their three best players, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were another year older. Allen was falling apart and needing multiple surgeries on his feet, Avery Bradley needed surgery on both his shoulders and would miss the first 2-3 months of the coming season, and they just didn't seem to have enough firepower to contend with other teams. So what did the front office do? They solved Boston's problems. They signed Courtney Lee, Jason Terry AND Leandro Barbosa, three guards who can create their own shots and drain threes. Jeff Green returned healthy and excited for a new season, and rookie Jared Sullinger looks to be a great backup for Garnett. They have Rajon Rondo, the league leader in assists, running the offense and possibly coming back with an improved jumper. They have Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett still, who are yet again ready to make one last reach for a title. Pierce and Garnett are now 35 and 36 years old respectively and re undoubtedly at the very end of their careers. Pierce plans to play out his contract through the 2013-14 season, and Garnett was just resigned for a three year contract worth nearly $12 million a season. That should really say something about these guys. They're old, but they are by no means ready to go out yet. Garnett made second team All-Defense last year, and is still one of the best defenders in the league. Pierce can still score and they'll both provide valuable experience, leadership, and balance to this team that suddenly looks revamped and ready to continue contending.
          I'm actually very excited to watch this Celtics team this season, and I think that they have an outsider's shot at the title. The Thunder, Lakers, and Heat are the three teams that everyone expects to win it all this season, but outside of those three Indiana or Boston is my pick to win the championship. They're suddenly deep again, and will have a great bench as well as starters who can play 40+ minutes a game if needed. Despite all their new acquisitions, they won't be able to make a run without Pierce and Garnett. Their health will be key this season, so don't be surprised if the two of them are periodically rested to remain strong for the playoffs. They may sit out games without having an official injury, and that's something that shouldn't be too worrisome. What really matters is that they make the playoffs and Pierce and Garnett are ready to play hard in April and June. I'll also be interested to see how the minutes and positions shake out between all the guards. They've got Rondo, Lee, Bradley (when he returns), Terry, Dooling, and Barbosa all fighting for minutes at two positions. We know Rondo will get the majority of the PG minutes, and I expect Lee to start at SG with Terry playing substantial minutes at SG and PG off the bench. Barbosa, Dooling, and Bradley will have a hard time fitting in the rotation though. I don't expect Dooling to stay on the team, and Barbosa may not either. Bradley will have to carve a role out for himself when he comes back, and he may need an injury to get a good amount of minutes. If one of those five is going to get cut out, it'll be Barbosa, which is a shame since he played so well during the Olympics this summer. Bradley will hopefully come back strong though, and that'll give Boston a healthy perimeter defender to throw on the court. Bradley averaged 15.1 PPG in April once Ray Allen went down with injuries and he excelled in the extended minutes.
          Courtney Lee is entering his fifth season in the NBA after averaging 11.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and shooting 43% FG and 40% 3FG in 30.3 minutes a game. He's developing into a great long range shooter and will likely make a couple threes every game and space the floor for the Celtics. He's only 27 years old, so he's still in his prime and is normally a consistent player and not injury prone, which is always a plus. Jason Terry averaged 15.1 points last season (his lowest average since his first season with Dallas in 2003) along with 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 43% FG and 38% 3FG in 31.7 minutes. Ideally, Terry would play some minutes at SG and also take the PG minutes left by Rondo. He'll also make 2-3 threes a game, and finished second in made threes in the league last season. He's a valuable bench player and knows his role very well, which he will able to recreate for Boston. He's been one of the league's best sixth men for several seasons now, and will bring some firepower to Boston's bench. Then there's Rondo of course. Rondo averaged 11.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, a league leading 11.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 45% shooting, 24% 3FG and 60% FT. He's also been an enigma thanks to his terrible shooting and free throw percentage (62% for his career). Rondo used to thrive off getting to the rim much like Derrick Rose for his points, but unlike Rose he's never been a big source of scoring for his team. He's never averaged more than 13 points a game for a season, and his assist numbers have risen every season he's played. Could he top 12+ assists a game? I think he could. He'll be playing with lots of options and decent scorers at every position. He likely won't score more than 12 PPG though, and that's probably a good thing unless he finally fixes his jumper. He's young enough that I wouldn't rule that out, and if he does he'll be much like Steve Nash in his prime when he averaged 19 PPG and 12 assists and won two MVP trophies. Unfortunately, his use will be limited if his shooting issues aren't solved. We know he can step up big when he has to, as evidenced by his 44 point explosion in Game two of the Conference Finals seen here.
It's crazy to think that Rondo is still improving his game. He's only 26 years old and is entering his seventh season in the NBA, usually about when players hit their peak. He recorded 10+ assists in 46 of the last 50 games he played in, including playoffs, highlighted by a streak of 24 straight double digit assist games. He's clearly the leader on this team, despite playing with two future Hall of Famers who still have something left in the tank. That's saying something. The past four seasons he's totaled an average of 10.2 assists a game, which is the third highest career average behind Magic Johnson (11.2) and John Stockton (10.5). Throw in his first two seasons where he struggled to get the starting spot and big minutes, and he's averaging 8.1, which is still tied for 10th all-time. If he averaged 12 assists a game this coming season, he'd be up to a career average of 8.8 and seventh all-time just ahead of Steve Nash and right behind Jason Kidd. Lets move on...
          At Small Forward, the Celtics have long-time great Paul Pierce. He's entering his 15th season in the NBA, and has yet to average fewer than 16 points per game for a season. He's got the statistics thing down now, and you can predict his numbers pretty well. He'll give you 18-25 points, 4-6 rebounds, 3-5 assists, 44-47% FG, 35-40% 3FG, and 34-37 minutes a game. Those have been his averages for the past decade, and while he's getting older he doesn't yet seem to be seeing a significant drop in production when he's on the court. There's a chance that may change with the talent around him, but I don't think so. He and KG will still be the veteran leaders for this team and will carry the team in tough games and clutch situations. Rondo is the most talented player right now, but Pierce and Garnett will still command the respect of everyone on court until they retire. We can look for Pierce to be the guy who takes the game-deciding shots again this season, and he'll still embrace the challenge. He's now playing younger, more athletic players almost every night but he's got experience and practice on his side. He's still not someone you want to play against, and it'll likely be like that until he finally retires.
          Also at Small Forward, we have the celebrated return of Jeff Green! Green was part of the trade that sent Kendrick Perkins to OKC a couple seasons ago, and he missed all of last season due to heart surgery and recovery. He's looked great during the preseason, and will bring the Celtics a legitimate backup Forward and a guy who can play more minutes if Pierce needs to sit out a game. His stats won't be anything amazing, but his presence will make a huge difference. He averaged 15.6 points and 5.2 rebounds in 37 minutes a game for the Thunder in the 2010-11 season, and he looks to be in great shape and could be ready for the best season of his career. He's still only 26 years old, and his enthusiasm to finally be back on the court will help Boston's bench a lot even if it doesn't seem like it.
          Brandon Bass will start at Power Forward again after having a bit of a breakout season with Boston last year. He averaged 12.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 48% FG in 31.7 minutes and is also fairly young at 27 years old. Bass, Garnett, and Sullinger will likely split up the power forward and center minutes between them, with KG and Sullinger splitting the Center minutes and one of them taking the rest of Bass's PF minutes. I'm excited to see how a KG and Sullinger front court could work out for a few minutes each game. Garnett is entering his 18th season in the league and will be 37 years old when the season ends. He still averaged 15.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.1 blocks, 50% FG, and 31.3 minutes in 60 games last season. His ferocity has always been an integral part of his play, and that's what will continue to keep him playing at such a high level. His stats aren't amazing, but his defense is still top notch and he's one of the best defenders in the league. The defining statistics for him are his numbers in the playoffs last season: 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 50% FG in 36.9 minutes. That's a definite step up from his regular season numbers and perfectly portrays KG. His game always steps up when it matters. When Boston enters the playoffs, that's when their true power will show. We won't really know what they're capable of until then, but I'm still excited. Jared Sullinger is Boston's rookie backup big man. He slipped to the bottom of the first round in the draft because of suggested back issues, and if he stays healthy he may be a great steal for the Celtics. He's looked great in the preseason, and there's been talk of Sullinger starting over Bass alongside KG. We'll have to wait and see and let Sullinger prove himself in the real season, but he has great potential and Celtics fans should definitely be excited.
          Like the Spurs, we should know better than to count these guys out or think they're done. Their addition of young guys while retaining their best veterans makes a dangerous combination that will take them to a high seed in the East this season. I'm rooting for them to beat Miami in an ECF rematch this season before Pierce and Garnett finally bow out and retire.





Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Indiana Pacers

Eastern Conference #3: Indiana Pacers (54-28)

Point guard: George Hill, DJ Augustin, Sundiata Gaines
Shooting Guard: Paul George, Lance Stephenson.
Small Forward: Danny Granger, Gerald Green, Sam Young
Power Forward: David West, Tyler Hansbourgh, Jeff Pendergraph
Center: Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi.

The future of Indiana basketball
          In the end, I couldn't put them ahead of Boston. That's the only reason they're not #2. I just couldn't see them winning a series against the Celtics, although it'd be pretty close and exciting. Last season's Pacers team was the best Indiana has seen since before "Malice At The Palace" in 2004. They beat the Howard-less Magic in the first round and took the champion Heat to six games before bowing out. The Pacers are centered around their two stars Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert, with a number of up and coming players surrounding them. David West, Paul George, and George Hill round out the starting lineup, and DJ Augustin, Lance Stephenson, Gerald "Highlight Reel" Green, Tyler Hansbourgh, and Ian Mahnimi will pick up the rest of the minutes. This is a team that can go 10 deep in quality (not necessarily starting material... but still quality) guys and have a number of lineup options to go with that. Granger will turn 30 at the end of the season, so he's unlikely to get any better than he is now and might have already reached his peak. Thankfully, the Pacers have enough young players to make up for his slight dip in production if it does, in fact, exist. They, like every other team, have made some roster changes this offseason. Most notably they've gotten rid of last season's starting PG, Darren Collison, and will replace him with George Hill. He's the only change in the starting five from last year, and should replace Collison's statistics fairly well. Collison averaged 10.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists with 44% FG and 36% 3FG in 31 minutes. As Collison's backup last year, Hill averaged 9.6 points, 3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 44% FG and 37% 3FG in 25.5 minutes a game. Not incredible, but he'll be playing with better scorers so it shouldn't matter.
          This year's Pacers look to be better than last year and are likely to achieve that goal. They're one of the best in the East now, and I think they could finish anywhere between the 2nd and 4th seeds. Homecourt advantage seems likely for these guys, as well as a Central Division title with the Bulls losing Derrick Rose. The Pacers are one of those teams who's offense isn't molded around a superstar scorer or a single amazing player. Much like the 76ers, Indiana distributes the ball and shots fairly evenly between everybody. Their point guards aren't likely to rack up too many assists since their shooting guards and Granger can handle the ball as well. There also won't likely be any fantasy basketball superstars on this team unless Granger jumps back to averaging 25 PPG, which is unlikely.
          George Hill and DJ Augustin are the Point Guards for this Pacers team this year and while I expect Hill to get the nod to start over Augustin, the minute spread will likely be pretty even. Augustin was the starting PG for the Bobcats last year, averaging 11.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and shooting 37%. He's not someone the Pacers should rely on for shooting, but with more talented players on the floor (any team is a big upgrade from the Bobcats) he should be able to play well as a pass-first point guard and distributor. Neither Hill nor Augustin are All-Star caliber and may even be simply average players. They won't need to play much of a larger role than that, and as long as they can shoot at a good percentage and make the shots they take they should be a success.
          At Shooting Guard the Pacers bring back Paul George, who recently had his team option exercised. He made a great second year jump in production last year, and should improve even more this year. He averaged 12.1 points, 5.6 rebounds (Second among all guards in the NBA behind Evan Turner), 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 44% FG and 39% 3FG in 29.7 minutes. His minutes will jump that 30+ mark and he could play up to 35 MPG if he does well or Stephenson doesn't pan out. Stephenson only played 10 MPG last season, so George may see himself as one of Indiana's leaders in minutes this season. He's an unrestricted Free Agent after next season, and is in line for a big pay raise. He looks to be an integral part of this Indiana team for the future, and we can expect to see the Pacers do what they can to keep George in Indiana for the long term. If he continues to improve, which is likely, he could be a future contender for an All-Star selection somewhere down the road.
          Danny Granger is Indiana's Small Forward as usual. He's not quite the guy who exploded onto the scene as the 2009 MIP and averaged 26 PPG, but he's surrounded with promising talent so he can share the scoring load. He also doesn't get as many shots as he used, while registering the lowest FG% of his career last season by shooting 42%. He's often seen as the leader of this team, but I think that perception may change over the course of this season as Hibbert and George continue to improve. Still, Granger will likely be Indiana's leading scorer and will get the biggest share of shots. He can handle the ball and create shots for himself and will be Indiana's go-to guy in clutch situations. Basically he's their Joe Johnson, but not quite with such a great resume. He's still a great player though and if it weren't for the amazing talent of Carmelo Anthony and Lebron James, Granger would have been an All-Star the last couple seasons. Granger will be backed up by Gerald Green, who may or may not be a help to the Pacers. It's been five seasons since Green played at least half the games in a season, although he did post career-high numbers in 32 games with the Nets last season so there's some hope. Green is best known for his dunking ability, having won the 2007 dunk contest and throwing down several vicious in-game dunks. Other than firing up the home crowd at times during games, Green likely won't bring much to the court or see much playing time either.
         The Pacers are bringing back David West at Power Forward and he will continue to support Roy Hibbert in the post. West's numbers dipped significantly over the past few seasons from 21 points and 8.9 rebounds in  2008-09 to 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds last season. Now it's true that last season me moved from the Hornets to the Pacers and didn't have such a large role as he used to, and he also saw far fewer shot attempts than he did with the Hornets while seeing his minutes dip just below 30 a game. That's just a product of this Pacers team, and while it can be disconcerting to see players join the team and watch their numbers drop, keep in mind that the team as a whole gets the points scored every night and have a balance that works for them. Their balance means that double-teaming anyone will likely end bad for their opponents and West and Hibbert seemed to work well together last season so there's no need to worry about something that seems to work. Tyler Hansbourgh will again back up West at PF, but his production seems uncertain. His numbers sank last season, his third season in the NBA, back to below 10 PPG and 5 RPG. He also shot just 40% from the field and doesn't seem to be improving like he should. There's a chance that the Pacers will increase West's minutes and decrease Hansbourgh's role if his production doesn't rebound like it should. West is perfectly capable of playing 30-35 minutes a game and that may be a good thing for the team.
          At Center, the Pacers have their All-Star Center Roy Hibbert, who should really be starting for my Trail Blazers. But whatever. I'm not bitter. The Pacers resigned Hibbert for just under $20 million a year, and he seems like a promising force in the East and a regular All-Star. He averaged 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 50% shooting in 29.8 minutes a game. Hibbert is still only 25 and while he doesn't seem like he'll develop in a high volume scorer, his improvement in rebounding seems to be still going and I expect him to average a double double this season. His playoffs numbers jumped to 11.8 points, 11.2 rebounds. 3.2 blocks, and 50% shooting in 30.9 minutes, so he seems to have a great sense of stepping it up for the playoffs. Hibbert is also giant, at 7'2" and 290 pounds, and that's huge considering many of today's centers are actually under 7' tall. His size will continue to help him as his skills improve and those extra 2-3 inches will help him a lot in playing defense or rebounding. I really hope Hibbert sees more minutes though. I don't understand why they'd keep him at under 30 MPG even though he's clearly one of the best centers in the NBA and is still getting better. It's not like they have anyone amazing backing him up (Ian Mahinmi was acquired from Dallas for that job this season), and he's also their best defensive player and one of the best shot blockers in the league. expect Hibbert to finally crack the 30 MPG mark this season and also make a big jump as he starts to reach his full potential. I think a top 5 rebounding and shot blocking average with 50%+ shooting is in his reach, and he may challenge Bynum for the title of best center in the East.
          All in all, this Pacers team seems well equipped for the season and will be no pushover when the playoffs come around. They're far more balanced that the Heat and Hibbert will destroy their big guys (which is what happened last season) and they're also young and hungry. They're clearly one of the most important teams in the East, and will likely remain that way for the next several seasons.

Monday, October 15, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Brooklyn Nets

Eastern Conference #4: Brooklyn Nets (52-30)

Point Guard: Deron Williams, CJ Watson, Tyshawn Taylor.
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, MarShon Brooks, Keith Bogans.
Small Forward: Gerald Wallace, Josh Childress, Jerry Stackhouse.
Power Forward: Kris Humphries, Reggie Evans.
Center: Brook Lopez, Andray Blatche.

          Move over New York! There's a new #1 team in... New York. At least that's what it looks like so far. We've yet to see how these guys work together on the court, but it sure looks promising! Give Mikhail Prokhorov credit for whipping a crummy team into what looks like a top four playoff seed in only two seasons (three counting the upcoming season). I'm excited to see this team in action, but also apprehensive about how they'll work together. The talent level is undeniable, as you can obviously see. They're got two great scoring guards in Williams and Johnson, and a former All-Star in Wallace. They have Kris Humphries, who had a big breakout last season and finished fifth in rebounding last season averaging 11 a game and was also a decent scorer. They also have Lopez, who's an All-Star waiting to happen. Since it's hard to really pinpoint a clear main star here, lets just work through the lineup and figure it out!

Saturday, October 13, 2012

2012-2013 preview: New York Knicks

Eastern Conference #5: New York Knicks (50-32)

Point Guard: Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd.
Shooting Guard: JR Smith, Ronnie Brewer, Iman Shumpert.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, Steve Novak, James White.
Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas.
Center: Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby.

          I know, I know. It doesn't seem possible. The Melo-Amar'e duo was supposed to transform the Knicks into title contenders, but instead they struggled to consecutive first round playoff exits at the hands of Lebron, Dwayne, and the Miami Heat. Since Amar'e and Carmelo joined New York, the Knicks have gone 77-71. Not exactly what people expected or hoped for. Of course, injuries have plagued them since they joined forces and they've never been able to find a groove together. Adding Tyson Chandler to the mix messed up Amare's game, and the clashing egos of two of the NBA's leading scorers were hurting the team. Yes, they were both top-10 scorers the season before they moved to NY.
Yeah guys! That's right! I'm pretty freaking awesome.
          In short, nothing really happened they way they expected in New York. Why should that change now? Because they have a new identity. It may not seem like it at first, but this is a totally different team than they were two years ago.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Philadelphia 76ers

Eastern Conference #6: Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)

Point Guard: Jrue Holiday, Royal Ivey.
Shooting Guard: Nick Young, Jason Richardson
Small Forward: Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Dorell Wright
Power Forward: Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie
Center: Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown.

          Everyone knows (hopefully) that Dwight Howard wasn't the only All-Star who switched teams when the Lakers traded for him. The Sixers sent Iguodala to Denver and got Bynum in return, which sets Bynum up to finally become a number one option on his team as long as he can stay healthy. He's 24 years old and just finished his first full healthy season while making the All-Star team and is the second best center in the league behind Howard. The question for the Sixers will be if having a dynamic main player will have any effect on how they play. They lost Iguodala in the trade and Lou Williams to the Hawks after not resigning him even though he led the team in scoring with 15 PPG while playing only 26 minutes a game. They added Nick Young, who's basically the same player as Williams (nearly identical stats) but plays on the wings more.
          Adding Bynum will also take a lot of the pressure off Hawes and Allen to play like solid starters even if they aren't. Hawes is expected to play at Power Forward alongside Bynum, and while Hawes isn't that great of a player, he did average a 10-7 with 49% shooting in 25 minutes. Bynum is also used to playing with another 7-footer, so this should hopefully work out well for both of them. Bynum will be able to take on a bigger scoring role, which he will likely embrace, while not having to be the sole big man on the court, and Hawes, who has openly stated he would play better alongside another big man at Center, will be able to play in the position he's the most comfortable in. They've also lost Elton Brand though, which would normally be a problem but Bynum seems like he could make up for Brand's production and then some.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Milwaukee Bucks

Eastern Conference #7: Milwaukee Bucks (42-40).

Point Guard: Brandon Jennings, Beno Udrih.
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis, Doron Lamb
Small Forward: Mike Dunleavy, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Power Forward: Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, John Henson.
Center: Samuel Dalembert, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, Joel Pryzbilla.


          This is a risk I'm taking here. The Bucks finished 31-35 last season, and got rid of Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino, and Stephen Jackson while adding Monta Ellis, Samuel Dalembert, and a pair of rookies in John Henson and Doron Lamb. So the first question would be why I expect them to do better than last year. Here's why...

Saturday, October 6, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Chicago Bulls

Eastern Conference #8: Chicago Bulls (40-42)

Point Guard: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Marquis Teague, Nate Robinson.
Shooting Guard: Richard Hamilton, Marco Belinelli.
Small Forward: Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler.
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson, Vladimir Radmonovic.
Center: Joakim Noah, Nazr Mohammed.

Miss me yet?
Things aren't looking pretty for this team without Rose. Kirk Hinrich will be taking over at Point Guard, and most of the scoring will have to be done by Hamilton, Deng, Boozer, and Noah. This is my highly optimistic forecast for Chicago, with the assumption that Rose may come back and win them a few games before the season's over. Noah and Boozer aren't bad at all, and they're certainly a formidable duo, but they aren't as good as they should be. Boozer has been a disappointment for Chicago since he left Utah and Noah has struggled with injuries throughout his career. If they can both stay healthy and increase their production they could be great this year. With Rose out, that will mean more shots for everyone, but particularly for the guys who step up the most. Those are obviously some big shoes for Hinrich and Teague to fill, even if it's temporary.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

2012-2013 preview: Atlanta Hawks

Eastern Conference #9: Atlanta Hawks (38-44)

Point Guard: Devin Harris, Jeff Teague.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, Anthony Morrow, John Jenkins.
Small Forward: Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson.
Power Forward: Josh Smith, Ivan Johnson, Mike Scott.
Center: Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Johan Petro.

Two All-Stars will try and keep Atlanta in the playoffs
Atlanta's best years are over. They peaked two years ago with a 53-29 record and the 3rd seed in the East, and now it's over. They finished 40-26 last season and then traded their leading scorer, Joe Johnson, to the Nets for a bunch of role players including Anthony Morrow and Johan Petro. Now their star is Josh Smith and he'll be supported mainly by Al Horford, Lou Williams, and Devin Harris. Exciting. Smith is assuredly a fantastic player, averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.4 steals, shooting 46% in 35 minutes and playing excellent defense. He's the youngest player to reach 1,000 blocks, doing it before he turned 24 years old, and he's only 6'9".

2012-2013 preview: Toronto Raptors

Eastern Conference #10: Toronto Raptors (36-46)

Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Jose Calderon, John Lucas.
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields, Terrence Ross, Alan Anderson.
Small Forward: DeMar DeRozan, Linas Kleiza.
Power Forward: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Quincy Acy
Center: Jonas Valanciunas, Ed Davis.

Playing together... but fighting for minutes
          What do you do when you have two point guards like Lowry and Calderon? Lowry developed into a solid point guard a couple seasons ago, and averaged 14.3 points, 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 41% shooting in 32 minutes and moved from Houston to Toronto this offseason. However, Calderon has established himself as a top-5 passing point guard and an efficient shooter, averaging 10.5 points, 8.9 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 46% shooting in 33.9 minutes. He finished third last season in assists per 48 minutes behind Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo. Calderon doesn't have the mentality to play shooting guard, and Lowry's only 6 feet tall and isn't the next Allen Iverson. That means they'll have to share the minutes. So... how do you split them?